Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 14/08, 11:30

Prediction: Heidelberg United (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)

Team pages: Heidelberg United (W) · Melbourne City NPL (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.33Total

Heidelberg United (W)3.17

Melbourne City NPL (W)1.17

1X2

78% 13% 9%

Heidelberg United (W) Draw Melbourne City NPL (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Heidelberg United (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Melbourne City NPL (W) 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Heidelberg United (W) 1–0 Melbourne City NPL (W) (1 last)

Melbourne City NPL (W)3-9Heidelberg United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heidelberg United (W) 1430 · Melbourne City NPL (W) 1374

	Heidelberg United (W)	Draw	Melbourne City NPL (W)
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	80%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.33 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heidelberg United (W) (rating 1430 vs 1374).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heidelberg United (W)	Melbourne City NPL (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	0.6 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	0.3 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.5 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0.1	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.80

2 (+2.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:18 +7’	1.14	7.50	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heidelberg United (W) 1–0–0 Melbourne City NPL (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Melbourne City NPL (W)	3-9 HT 0-4	Heidelberg United (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	23	17	2	4	62	26	53
2	Essendon Royals (W)	23	16	2	5	68	26	50
3	Avondale FC (W)	23	15	2	6	56	22	47
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	23	14	4	5	55	24	46
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	23	14	1	8	48	34	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	23	11	6	6	43	23	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	23	11	3	9	28	25	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	23	10	2	11	44	48	32
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	23	8	2	13	27	35	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	23	7	5	11	34	44	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	23	7	5	11	28	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	23	6	5	12	22	40	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	23	2	2	19	19	79	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	23	2	1	20	21	88	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heidelberg United (W)	Melbourne City NPL (W)
Keilor Park (W)	2-0 W	1-3 L
Essendon Royals (W)	1-4 L	1-3 L
Avondale FC (W)	0-4 L	1-6 L
Bulleen Lions (W)	1-1 D	0-5 L
Alamein FC (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Spring Hills FC (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
Boroondara Eagles (W)	1-3 L	0-3 L
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	0-1 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	0 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Heidelberg United (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Heidelberg United (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
01/08	Essendon Royals (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	0-1	1-4	2	1	L
25/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-4	0-4	0	0	L
18/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
11/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
03/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
27/06	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
21/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
30/05	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	4	3	L

Melbourne City NPL (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
02/08	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-3	1-6	5	2	L
25/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
18/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-3	5	0	L
04/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	1-3	2	0	L
27/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-3	1-6	0	0	L
20/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-5	3	1	L
06/06	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
29/05	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heidelberg United (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heidelberg United (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Heidelberg United (W) 78%, draw 13%, Melbourne City NPL (W) 9%.

How many goals are expected in Heidelberg United (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?

The model expects 4.33 goals (Heidelberg United (W) 3.17 · Melbourne City NPL (W) 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Heidelberg United (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.