Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 24/07, 10:15

Prediction: Preston Lions (W) vs Keilor Park (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Preston Lions (W)1.65

Keilor Park (W)1.43

1X2

42% 25% 33%

Preston Lions (W) Draw Keilor Park (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Keilor Park (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Preston Lions (W) 0–1–0 Keilor Park (W) (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions (W) 1461 · Keilor Park (W) 1479

	Preston Lions (W)	Draw	Keilor Park (W)
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions (W)	Keilor Park (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +1’	2.10	3.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston Lions (W) 0–1–0 Keilor Park (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Keilor Park (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Preston Lions (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	21	15	2	4	57	24	47
2	Essendon Royals (W)	21	14	2	5	57	24	44
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	21	13	4	4	51	20	43
4	Avondale FC (W)	21	13	2	6	51	22	41
5	South Melbourne (W)	21	11	6	4	42	20	39
6	Boroondara Eagles (W)	21	12	1	8	45	33	37
7	Alamein FC (W)	21	11	3	7	28	22	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	20	8	2	10	35	40	26
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	21	8	2	11	25	30	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	21	6	5	10	32	40	23
11	Keilor Park (W)	21	6	5	10	22	37	23
12	Preston Lions (W)	21	5	5	11	25	41	20
13	Melbourne City NPL (W)	20	2	1	17	20	78	7
14	Bentleigh Greens (W)	21	1	2	18	15	74	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions (W)	Keilor Park (W)
Avondale FC (W)	0-3 L	0-2 L
Boroondara Eagles (W)	2-1 W	2-5 L
Bulleen Lions (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Alamein FC (W)	0-2 L	0-3 L
Spring Hills FC (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Box Hill (W)	0-3 L	0-2 L
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Bentleigh Greens (W)	5-3 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Keilor Park (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Preston Lions (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
14/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	0	W
10/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
04/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
26/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
07/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
30/05	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
22/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	9	0	W
17/05	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
10/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	5-3	6	1	W

Keilor Park (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
11/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
04/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-1	9	0	W
27/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
20/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
06/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
30/05	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
23/05	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	2-1	3	1	W
16/05	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	2-5	2	2	L
08/05	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	0	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Preston Lions (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Preston Lions (W) 42%, draw 25%, Keilor Park (W) 33%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Preston Lions (W) 1.65 · Keilor Park (W) 1.43), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.