Prediction: Avondale FC (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)
Expected goals: 3.3 (Avondale FC (W) 1.49 · Essendon Royals (W) 1.81). The model gives 31% home, 24% draw, 45% away. Under 3.25 goals (52%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Avondale FC (W) sits at 6-1-3 (W-D-L), while Essendon Royals (W) arrives on a 7-2-1 run. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Avondale FC (W) won 0 and Essendon Royals (W) 1.
| Avondale FC (W) | Draw | Essendon Royals (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1535 vs 1600).
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Avondale FC (W) | Essendon Royals (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.2 | 3.2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5 | 3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Avondale FC (W) 0–0–1 Essendon Royals (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Essendon Royals (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Avondale FC (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Royals (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 38 |
| 2 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 17 | 38 |
| 3 | Box Hill (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 22 | 38 |
| 4 | South Melbourne (W) | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 18 | 35 |
| 5 | Avondale FC (W) | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 20 | 32 |
| 6 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 31 |
| 7 | Alamein FC (W) | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 29 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 31 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 23 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 36 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 19 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 16 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 72 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 69 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Avondale FC (W) | Essendon Royals (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Alamein FC (W) | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Spring Hills FC (W) | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Box Hill (W) | 1-0 W | 7-1 W |
| South Melbourne (W) | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 6 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Avondale FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 6-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 23/05 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 19/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 24/04 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
Essendon Royals (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Avondale FC (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Essendon Royals (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Avondale FC (W) 31%, draw 24%, Essendon Royals (W) 45%.
How many goals are expected in Avondale FC (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Avondale FC (W) 1.49 · Essendon Royals (W) 1.81), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Avondale FC (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.