Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 02/08, 01:00

Prediction: Gremio (W) vs America MG (W)

Team pages: Gremio (W) · America MG (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Gremio (W)2.41

America MG (W)0.56

1X2

78% 15% 7%

Gremio (W) Draw America MG (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWDDD

America MG (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLLWLL

Head-to-head

Gremio (W) 1–3–0 America MG (W) (4 last)

America MG (W)0-0Gremio (W)
Gremio (W)1-1America MG (W)
Gremio (W)0-0America MG (W)
America MG (W)1-2Gremio (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio (W) 1547 · America MG (W) 1437

	Gremio (W)	Draw	America MG (W)
Our model	78%	16%	6%
Market	79%	14%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio (W) (rating 1547 vs 1437).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio (W)	America MG (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	1.9 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.50

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.88

2 (+2)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:10 +16’	1.17	6.50	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio (W) 1–3–0 America MG (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	America MG (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio (W)
11/06/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Gremio (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	America MG (W)
20/07/19 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women	Gremio (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	America MG (W)
13/07/19 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women	America MG (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Gremio (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	13	10	1	2	35	13	31
2	Sao Paulo (W)	13	9	2	2	21	9	29
3	Palmeiras (W)	13	8	4	1	27	10	28
4	Bahia (W)	13	7	3	3	24	17	24
5	Internacional (W)	13	7	2	4	14	10	23
6	Ferroviaria (W)	13	6	5	2	19	12	23
7	Flamengo (W)	13	6	5	2	21	15	23
8	Cruzeiro (W)	13	5	6	2	24	16	21
9	Bragantino (W)	13	6	2	5	21	20	20
10	Gremio (W)	13	5	3	5	19	14	18
11	Santos (W)	13	4	5	4	13	15	17
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	13	4	4	5	14	15	16
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	13	3	3	7	14	18	12
14	EC Juventude (W)	13	2	4	7	7	12	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	13	1	5	7	8	24	8
16	America MG (W)	13	1	3	9	6	26	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	13	1	3	9	9	32	6
18	Botafogo (W)	13	1	2	10	8	26	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio (W)	America MG (W)
Mixto EC (W)	3-0 W	1-1 D
Bahia (W)	2-0 W	1-3 L
Sao Paulo (W)	1-3 L	0-0 D
EC Vitoria (W)	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gremio (W)

WWLWLWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
27/05	Internacional (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
24/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
10/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
01/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
28/04	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
21/04	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	1-3	3	7	L
04/04	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	3-0	14	3	W
28/03	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	3	6	W

America MG (W)

DLLDDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
28/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/05	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-2	2	5	L
09/05	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
02/05	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
27/04	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
21/04	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-3	1-4	2	0	L
01/04	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-3	3	8	L
28/03	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-1	13	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio (W) vs America MG (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Gremio (W) 78%, draw 15%, America MG (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio (W) vs America MG (W)?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Gremio (W) 2.41 · America MG (W) 0.56), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio (W) vs America MG (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.