Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 01/08, 20:00

Prediction: Cruzeiro (W) vs Botafogo (W)

Team pages: Cruzeiro (W) · Botafogo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Cruzeiro (W)2.65

Botafogo (W)0.73

1X2

78% 14% 8%

Cruzeiro (W) Draw Botafogo (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Cruzeiro (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDWWDWLL

Botafogo (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Cruzeiro (W) 1–1–0 Botafogo (W) (2 last)

Cruzeiro (W)3-0Botafogo (W)
Cruzeiro (W)1-1Botafogo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruzeiro (W) 1504 · Botafogo (W) 1411

	Cruzeiro (W)	Draw	Botafogo (W)
Our model	77%	15%	7%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruzeiro (W) (rating 1504 vs 1411).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruzeiro (W)	Botafogo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	0.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.5	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.88

2 (+2)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:10 +13’	1.17	7.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro (W) 1–1–0 Botafogo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Botafogo (W)
09/05/21 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Botafogo (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	13	10	1	2	35	13	31
2	Sao Paulo (W)	13	9	2	2	21	9	29
3	Palmeiras (W)	13	8	4	1	27	10	28
4	Bahia (W)	13	7	3	3	24	17	24
5	Internacional (W)	13	7	2	4	14	10	23
6	Ferroviaria (W)	13	6	5	2	19	12	23
7	Flamengo (W)	13	6	5	2	21	15	23
8	Cruzeiro (W)	13	5	6	2	24	16	21
9	Bragantino (W)	13	6	2	5	21	20	20
10	Gremio (W)	13	5	3	5	19	14	18
11	Santos (W)	13	4	5	4	13	15	17
12	Fluminense RJ (W)	13	4	4	5	14	15	16
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	13	3	3	7	14	18	12
14	EC Juventude (W)	13	2	4	7	7	12	10
15	Mixto EC (W)	13	1	5	7	8	24	8
16	America MG (W)	13	1	3	9	6	26	6
17	EC Vitoria (W)	13	1	3	9	9	32	6
18	Botafogo (W)	13	1	2	10	8	26	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruzeiro (W)	Botafogo (W)
EC Vitoria (W)	2-2 D	0-2 L
America MG (W)	4-0 W	0-3 L
EC Juventude (W)	0-0 D	3-0 W
Bragantino (W)	2-2 D	0-2 L
Internacional (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cruzeiro (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cruzeiro (W)

DLDDWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
21/07	Fluminense RJ (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
28/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	5-0	7	1	W
24/05	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
19/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
09/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	4-0	8	0	W
01/05	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
26/04	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
22/04	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
31/03	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	3	4	D

Botafogo (W)

DLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-2	1	9	L
23/07	Bragantino (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
17/07	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
27/05	EC Juventude (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
24/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-3	12	5	L
19/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
11/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
03/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-3	0	5	L
28/04	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
04/04	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-1	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro (W) vs Botafogo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruzeiro (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro (W) 78%, draw 14%, Botafogo (W) 8%.

How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro (W) vs Botafogo (W)?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Cruzeiro (W) 2.65 · Botafogo (W) 0.73), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro (W) vs Botafogo (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.