Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 02/08, 09:00

Prediction: Sydney University (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)

Team pages: Sydney University (W) · NWS Spirit (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Sydney University (W)1.62

NWS Spirit (W)2.02

1X2

31% 23% 47%

Sydney University (W) Draw NWS Spirit (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sydney University (W) 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDLWDLDD

NWS Spirit (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWDW

Head-to-head

Sydney University (W) 2–2–2 NWS Spirit (W) (6 last)

NWS Spirit (W)0-6Sydney University (W)
NWS Spirit (W)2-2Sydney University (W)
Sydney University (W)0-1NWS Spirit (W)
Sydney University (W)3-3NWS Spirit (W)
NWS Spirit (W)1-3Sydney University (W)
NWS Spirit (W)3-0Sydney University (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sydney University (W) 1474 · NWS Spirit (W) 1531

	Sydney University (W)	Draw	NWS Spirit (W)
Our model	30%	23%	46%
Market	31%	22%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NWS Spirit (W) (rating 1474 vs 1531).
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sydney University (W)	NWS Spirit (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X4.00

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:13 +9’	2.90	4.00	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney University (W) 2–2–2 NWS Spirit (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-6 HT 0-3	Sydney University (W)
21/06/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	2-2 HT 2-2	Sydney University (W)
23/03/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Sydney University (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	NWS Spirit (W)
16/06/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Sydney University (W)	3-3 HT 2-2	NWS Spirit (W)
16/03/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Sydney University (W)
08/07/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Sydney University (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	21	15	5	1	58	21	50
2	University NSW (W)	21	13	7	1	42	16	46
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	21	14	2	5	53	27	44
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	21	12	4	5	39	27	40
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	21	9	4	8	36	29	31
6	Sydney University (W)	21	8	6	7	45	39	30
7	Manly Utd (W)	21	7	8	6	33	27	29
8	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	21	8	3	10	37	36	27
9	Macarthur Rams (W)	21	7	4	10	29	38	25
10	Gladesville Ravens (W)	21	6	5	10	29	36	23
11	Hills United FC (W)	21	6	2	13	23	31	20
12	NWS Spirit (W)	21	6	2	13	28	71	20
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	21	3	6	12	18	39	15
14	Western City Rangers (W)	21	3	2	16	25	58	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sydney University (W)	NWS Spirit (W)
Northern Tigers FC (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
Macarthur Rams (W)	2-2 D	4-2 W
Hills United FC (W)	0-3 L	1-0 W
Illawarra Stingrays (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Western City Rangers (W)	5-2 W	4-0 W
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	2-3 L	1-0 W
Gladesville Ravens (W)	1-1 D	3-1 W
APIA Leichardt (W)	0-3 L	1-2 L
Manly Utd (W)	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NWS Spirit (W) (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sydney University (W)

DDLDLWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-1	2-2	2	0	D
19/07	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
12/07	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-3	8	1	L
05/07	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	5-2	4	0	W
21/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
14/06	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
07/06	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
31/05	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
23/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-1	3	1	D

NWS Spirit (W)

LWWWDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
19/07	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
11/07	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	4-2	8	2	W
05/07	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	4-4	3	3	D
13/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
07/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	10	3	W
22/05	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sydney University (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NWS Spirit (W) win (47%). Probabilities: Sydney University (W) 31%, draw 23%, NWS Spirit (W) 47%.

How many goals are expected in Sydney University (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Sydney University (W) 1.62 · NWS Spirit (W) 2.02), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sydney University (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.