Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 09/08, 07:00

Prediction: Macarthur Rams (W) vs University NSW (W)

Team pages: Macarthur Rams (W) · University NSW (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Macarthur Rams (W)1.15

University NSW (W)1.6

1X2

27% 25% 47%

Macarthur Rams (W) Draw University NSW (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Macarthur Rams (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLWDLW

University NSW (W) 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDWDDD

Head-to-head

Macarthur Rams (W) 2–1–2 University NSW (W) (5 last)

University NSW (W)1-0Macarthur Rams (W)
Macarthur Rams (W)3-0University NSW (W)
University NSW (W)3-0Macarthur Rams (W)
University NSW (W)0-2Macarthur Rams (W)
Macarthur Rams (W)2-2University NSW (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Macarthur Rams (W) 1489 · University NSW (W) 1543

	Macarthur Rams (W)	Draw	University NSW (W)
Our model	26%	27%	47%
Market	28%	24%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University NSW (W) (rating 1489 vs 1543).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Macarthur Rams (W)	University NSW (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	3.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.70

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 01:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.20▼	Pinn 4.20 ★
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.82
2	1.73 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:16 +11’	3.60	3.80	1.73
22:37 +1’	4.33▲	4.00▲	1.57▼
00:03	3.60▼	3.80▼	1.73▲
01:24 +4’	4.33▲	4.00▲	1.57▼
01:53 +4’	3.20▼	3.70▼	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:29 +2’	4.18	3.80	1.66
13:48 +3’	4.20▲	3.82▲	1.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Macarthur Rams (W) 2–1–2 University NSW (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	University NSW (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Macarthur Rams (W)
29/06/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	University NSW (W)
30/03/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	University NSW (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Macarthur Rams (W)
28/07/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	University NSW (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Macarthur Rams (W)
28/04/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	University NSW (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	22	15	6	1	60	23	51
2	University NSW (W)	22	13	8	1	44	18	47
3	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	23	14	4	5	50	28	46
4	APIA Leichardt (W)	22	14	3	5	55	29	45
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	22	9	5	8	37	30	32
6	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	22	9	3	10	38	36	30
7	Manly Utd (W)	22	7	9	6	35	29	30
8	Sydney University (W)	22	8	6	8	46	41	30
9	Macarthur Rams (W)	22	8	4	10	34	38	28
10	NWS Spirit (W)	23	7	2	14	30	74	23
11	Gladesville Ravens (W)	22	6	5	11	29	41	23
12	Hills United FC (W)	22	6	3	13	24	32	21
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	22	3	6	13	18	40	15
14	Western City Rangers (W)	22	3	2	17	26	67	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Macarthur Rams (W)	University NSW (W)
Gladesville Ravens (W)	5-0 W	2-2 D
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	0-3 L	0-0 D
Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
APIA Leichardt (W)	1-2 L	1-1 D
Bulls FC Academy (W)	0-5 L	0-1 L
Manly Utd (W)	1-1 D	2-2 D
Illawarra Stingrays (W)	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: University NSW (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Macarthur Rams (W)

WDLLWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	5-0	5-0	8	4	W
26/07	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
19/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	2-2	6	1	D
15/07	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
11/07	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-4	4	2	L
05/07	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	4	0	W
21/06	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	1-2	2	1	L
14/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-3	0-5	8	1	L
07/06	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-1	5	0	D
31/05	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	2-1	8	3	W

University NSW (W)

WWWLDDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-2	6	0	D
25/07	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
19/07	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-2	6	0	D
15/07	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/07	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
04/07	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
28/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
21/06	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-1	3-1	7	0	W
14/06	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	11	1	W
06/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Macarthur Rams (W) vs University NSW (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an University NSW (W) win (47%). Probabilities: Macarthur Rams (W) 27%, draw 25%, University NSW (W) 47%.

How many goals are expected in Macarthur Rams (W) vs University NSW (W)?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Macarthur Rams (W) 1.15 · University NSW (W) 1.6), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Macarthur Rams (W) vs University NSW (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.