Prediction: Northern Tigers FC (W) vs University NSW (W)
Expected goals: 3.21 (Northern Tigers FC (W) 1.17 · University NSW (W) 2.04). The model gives 21% home, 22% draw, 57% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Northern Tigers FC (W) with 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; University NSW (W) has piled up 8-1-1 in the same span. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Northern Tigers FC (W) won 2 and University NSW (W) 3.
| Northern Tigers FC (W) | Draw | University NSW (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 21% | 21% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University NSW (W) (rating 1489 vs 1607).
- H2H favours University NSW (W): 3-0-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northern Tigers FC (W) | University NSW (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 2.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.6 | 2.9 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northern Tigers FC (W) 2–0–3 University NSW (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | University NSW (W) | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Northern Tigers FC (W) |
| 30/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Northern Tigers FC (W) | 2-3 HT 1-2 | University NSW (W) |
| 01/06/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | University NSW (W) | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Northern Tigers FC (W) |
| 18/08/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Northern Tigers FC (W) | 4-1 HT 3-0 | University NSW (W) |
| 19/05/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | University NSW (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Northern Tigers FC (W) |
Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University NSW (W) | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 42 |
| 2 | Bulls FC Academy (W) | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 16 | 40 |
| 3 | APIA Leichardt (W) | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 22 | 37 |
| 4 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 36 |
| 5 | Sydney University (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 27 |
| 6 | Northern Tigers FC (W) | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 23 |
| 7 | Manly Utd (W) | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 20 |
| 9 | Gladesville Ravens (W) | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | 20 |
| 10 | Macarthur Rams (W) | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 28 | 18 |
| 11 | Hills United FC (W) | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 25 | 17 |
| 12 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 28 | 13 |
| 13 | NWS Spirit (W) | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 13 |
| 14 | Western City Rangers (W) | 17 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 48 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northern Tigers FC (W) | University NSW (W) |
|---|---|---|
| NWS Spirit (W) | 1-2 L | 8-3 W |
| Manly Utd (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Illawarra Stingrays (W) | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| APIA Leichardt (W) | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Bulls FC Academy (W) | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Macarthur Rams (W) | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Hills United FC (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 6 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: University NSW (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northern Tigers FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
University NSW (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/05 | APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
5-0 | 8-3 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Northern Tigers FC (W) vs University NSW (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an University NSW (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Northern Tigers FC (W) 21%, draw 22%, University NSW (W) 57%.
How many goals are expected in Northern Tigers FC (W) vs University NSW (W)?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Northern Tigers FC (W) 1.17 · University NSW (W) 2.04), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Northern Tigers FC (W) vs University NSW (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.