Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 11/07, 07:00

Prediction: NWS Spirit (W) vs Macarthur Rams (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.04Total

NWS Spirit (W)2.18

Macarthur Rams (W)1.86

1X2

45% 22% 33%

NWS Spirit (W) Draw Macarthur Rams (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NWS Spirit (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Macarthur Rams (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

NWS Spirit (W) 2–1–3 Macarthur Rams (W) (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NWS Spirit (W) 1488 · Macarthur Rams (W) 1488

	NWS Spirit (W)	Draw	Macarthur Rams (W)
Our model	45%	22%	33%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Macarthur Rams (W): 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NWS Spirit (W)	Macarthur Rams (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 3	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.6	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.5	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	1.6 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · NWS Spirit (W) 2–1–3 Macarthur Rams (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	NWS Spirit (W)
23/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Macarthur Rams (W)
25/05/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	NWS Spirit (W)
30/06/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Macarthur Rams (W)
01/04/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	NWS Spirit (W)
10/09/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	NWS Spirit (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University NSW (W)	18	13	4	1	39	13	43
2	Bulls FC Academy (W)	18	13	4	1	48	16	43
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	18	13	1	4	46	23	40
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	17	11	4	2	33	18	37
5	Sydney University (W)	18	8	4	6	41	32	28
6	Northern Tigers FC (W)	18	7	3	8	29	25	24
7	Manly Utd (W)	18	5	8	5	29	24	23
8	Gladesville Ravens (W)	18	6	3	9	26	32	21
9	Macarthur Rams (W)	17	6	3	8	24	29	21
10	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	18	6	2	10	32	35	20
11	Hills United FC (W)	18	5	2	11	19	28	17
12	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	18	3	5	10	15	28	14
13	NWS Spirit (W)	18	4	1	13	22	68	13
14	Western City Rangers (W)	18	2	2	14	17	49	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NWS Spirit (W)	Macarthur Rams (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Northern Tigers FC (W)	2-1 W	3-2 W
Bulls FC Academy (W)	4-4 D	0-5 L
Western City Rangers (W)	4-0 W	2-1 W
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	1-0 W	1-4 L
Gladesville Ravens (W)	3-1 W	2-3 L
Manly Utd (W)	1-3 L	1-1 D
University NSW (W)	3-8 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: NWS Spirit (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NWS Spirit (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	4-4	3	3	D
13/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
07/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	10	3	W
22/05	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
16/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-5	3-8	3	1	L
10/05	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-5	1	1	L
02/05	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-3	0-6	0	1	L

Macarthur Rams (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	4	0	W
21/06	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	1-2	2	1	L
14/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-3	0-5	8	1	L
07/06	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-1	5	0	D
31/05	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
24/05	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
17/05	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	3-2	7	2	W
09/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
03/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
26/04	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-3	1-4	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NWS Spirit (W) vs Macarthur Rams (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NWS Spirit (W) win (45%). Probabilities: NWS Spirit (W) 45%, draw 22%, Macarthur Rams (W) 33%.

How many goals are expected in NWS Spirit (W) vs Macarthur Rams (W)?

The model expects 4.04 goals (NWS Spirit (W) 2.18 · Macarthur Rams (W) 1.86), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NWS Spirit (W) vs Macarthur Rams (W)?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.