Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 05/07, 08:50

Prediction: APIA Leichardt (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)

Expected goals: 4.2 (APIA Leichardt (W) 2.84 · NWS Spirit (W) 1.36). The model gives 67% home, 18% draw, 15% away. Over 3.75 goals (53%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 2-1.

Over its last 10 matches, APIA Leichardt (W) sits at 5-0-5 (W-D-L), while NWS Spirit (W) arrives on a 4-1-5 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, APIA Leichardt (W) won 4 and NWS Spirit (W) 1, with 1 draw.

67%1

67% 18% 15%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APIA Leichardt (W) 1555 · NWS Spirit (W) 1465

	APIA Leichardt (W)	Draw	NWS Spirit (W)
Our model	68%	17%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Expected goals4.2APIA Leichardt (W) 2.84 · NWS Spirit (W) 1.36

Over / Under 3.75Over 3.75 · 53%

BTTSYes · 60%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APIA Leichardt (W) (rating 1555 vs 1465).
H2H favours APIA Leichardt (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APIA Leichardt (W)	NWS Spirit (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.8	1.8 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · APIA Leichardt (W) 4–1–1 NWS Spirit (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-4 HT 0-3	APIA Leichardt (W)
02/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	APIA Leichardt (W)
04/05/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	NWS Spirit (W)
04/08/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	NWS Spirit (W)
04/05/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	APIA Leichardt (W)
02/07/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	NWS Spirit (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University NSW (W)	17	13	3	1	39	13	42
2	Bulls FC Academy (W)	17	12	4	1	47	16	40
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	17	12	1	4	44	22	37
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	16	11	3	2	33	18	36
5	Sydney University (W)	17	8	3	6	41	32	27
6	Northern Tigers FC (W)	17	7	2	8	29	25	23
7	Manly Utd (W)	17	5	7	5	28	23	22
8	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	17	6	2	9	32	34	20
9	Gladesville Ravens (W)	17	6	2	9	26	32	20
10	Macarthur Rams (W)	16	5	3	8	21	28	18
11	Hills United FC (W)	17	5	2	10	18	25	17
12	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	17	3	4	10	15	28	13
13	NWS Spirit (W)	17	4	1	12	21	66	13
14	Western City Rangers (W)	17	2	1	14	16	48	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APIA Leichardt (W)	NWS Spirit (W)
Manly Utd (W)	2-1 W	1-3 L
Hills United FC (W)	4-1 W	0-5 L
Sydney University (W)	3-0 W	0-6 L
Northern Tigers FC (W)	1-4 L	2-1 W
Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	2-3 L	0-5 L
University NSW (W)	0-1 L	3-8 L
Gladesville Ravens (W)	2-3 L	3-1 W
Bulls FC Academy (W)	2-3 L	4-4 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: APIA Leichardt (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

APIA Leichardt (W)

LLWLLLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	5	0	W
21/06	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	2-1	1	1	W
14/06	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
07/06	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
31/05	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-4	7	2	L
24/05	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-3	2	0	L
21/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
17/05	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	5-1	5	2	W
10/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	2-3	11	3	L
03/05	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-3	6	1	L

NWS Spirit (W)

LLLLLWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	4-4	3	3	D
13/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
07/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	10	3	W
22/05	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
16/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-5	3-8	3	1	L
10/05	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-5	1	1	L
02/05	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-3	0-6	0	1	L
26/04	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-5	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APIA Leichardt (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APIA Leichardt (W) win (67%). Probabilities: APIA Leichardt (W) 67%, draw 18%, NWS Spirit (W) 15%.

How many goals are expected in APIA Leichardt (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

The model expects 4.2 goals (APIA Leichardt (W) 2.84 · NWS Spirit (W) 1.36), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in APIA Leichardt (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.