Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/07, 00:00
Prediction: CT United vs New York Red Bulls II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.81Total
CT United2.12
New York Red Bulls II1.69
1X2
CT United
Draw
New York Red Bulls II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CT United
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
New York Red Bulls II
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CT United
1–0
New York Red Bulls II
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CT United 1523 · New York Red Bulls II 1483
| CT United | Draw | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 22% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 23% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CT United (rating 1523 vs 1483).
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CT United | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.6 | 1.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 1.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CT United 1–0–0 New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-3 HT 0-2 | CT United |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 29 | 36 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 25 | 34 |
| 3 | Orlando City II | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 39 | 32 | 33 |
| 4 | Chattanooga FC | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 33 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 27 | 32 |
| 6 | New England Revolution II | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 32 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 26 | 30 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 28 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 24 | 27 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Union II | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 26 |
| 11 | CT United | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 25 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 36 | 25 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 35 | 22 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 32 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 34 | 14 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CT United | New York Red Bulls II |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC II | 3-2 W | 5-0 W |
| Carolina Core FC | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| New York City FC II | 1-4 L | 2-3 L |
| FC Cincinnati II | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| New England Revolution II | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CT United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CT United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 19/06 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 04/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 06/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CT United vs New York Red Bulls II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CT United win (47%). Probabilities: CT United 47%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls II 30%.
How many goals are expected in CT United vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model expects 3.81 goals (CT United 2.12 · New York Red Bulls II 1.69), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CT United vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.