Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/07, 02:00
Prediction: Sporting Kansas City II vs Minnesota United FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.54Total
Sporting Kansas City II1.43
Minnesota United FC II2.11
1X2
Sporting Kansas City II
Draw
Minnesota United FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Kansas City II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Minnesota United FC II
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting Kansas City II
1–5
Minnesota United FC II
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City II 1442 · Minnesota United FC II 1512
| Sporting Kansas City II | Draw | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Minnesota United FC II (rating 1442 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Minnesota United FC II: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Kansas City II | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.6 | 1.5 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6.2 | 1.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City II 1–0–5 Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 05/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 09/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 10/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 2-4 HT 1-3 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 23/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 03/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 3-4 HT 2-2 | Sporting Kansas City II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 40 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 34 |
| 4 | Minnesota United FC II | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 29 |
| 5 | Ventura County FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 29 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 29 |
| 8 | The Town | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 28 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 31 | 26 |
| 10 | Tacoma Defiance | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 24 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 40 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 50 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 35 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting Kansas City II | Minnesota United FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Austin FC II | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| North Texas SC | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Colorado Rapids II | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Tacoma Defiance | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Houston Dynamo II | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Minnesota United FC II (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Kansas City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 17/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/04 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 29/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City II vs Minnesota United FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Minnesota United FC II win (52%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City II 25%, draw 22%, Minnesota United FC II 52%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City II vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model expects 3.54 goals (Sporting Kansas City II 1.43 · Minnesota United FC II 2.11), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City II vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.