Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/07, 03:30
Prediction: Real Monarchs SLC vs Tacoma Defiance
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
Real Monarchs SLC1.67
Tacoma Defiance1.26
1X2
Real Monarchs SLC
Draw
Tacoma Defiance
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Real Monarchs SLC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Tacoma Defiance
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Monarchs SLC
3–2–1
Tacoma Defiance
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Monarchs SLC 1495 · Tacoma Defiance 1529
| Real Monarchs SLC | Draw | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Real Monarchs SLC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Monarchs SLC | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.4 | 2.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Monarchs SLC 3–2–1 Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 01/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 18/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 12/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 14/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 12/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 40 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 34 |
| 4 | Minnesota United FC II | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 29 |
| 5 | Ventura County FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 29 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 29 |
| 8 | The Town | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 28 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 31 | 26 |
| 10 | Tacoma Defiance | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 24 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 40 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 50 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 35 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Monarchs SLC | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Ventura County FC | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Portland Timbers II | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| The Town | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Sporting Kansas City II | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Tacoma Defiance (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Monarchs SLC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 7 | D |
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Monarchs SLC vs Tacoma Defiance?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Monarchs SLC win (47%). Probabilities: Real Monarchs SLC 47%, draw 25%, Tacoma Defiance 28%.
How many goals are expected in Real Monarchs SLC vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model expects 2.93 goals (Real Monarchs SLC 1.67 · Tacoma Defiance 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Monarchs SLC vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.