Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 27/07, 01:00
Prediction: St Louis City II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.6Total
St Louis City II2.38
Vancouver Whitecaps II1.22
1X2
St Louis City II
Draw
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
St Louis City II
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Vancouver Whitecaps II
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Louis City II
4–2
Vancouver Whitecaps II
(6 last)
- Vancouver Whitecaps II2-4St Louis City II
- Vancouver Whitecaps II3-1St Louis City II
- Vancouver Whitecaps II0-1St Louis City II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Louis City II 1442 · Vancouver Whitecaps II 1408
| St Louis City II | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours St Louis City II: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Louis City II | Vancouver Whitecaps II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.4 | 1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.6 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Louis City II 4–0–2 Vancouver Whitecaps II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-4 HT 1-2 | St Louis City II |
| 01/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 3-1 HT 1-0 | St Louis City II |
| 09/09/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | St Louis City II |
| 01/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps II |
| 14/08/22 USA MLS Next Pro League | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 1-4 HT 1-3 | St Louis City II |
| 08/05/22 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 16 | 43 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 15 | 40 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 23 | 37 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 27 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United FC II | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 32 | 29 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC II | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 8 | The Town | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 20 | 28 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 27 |
| 10 | Real Monarchs SLC | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 35 | 26 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 25 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 44 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 50 | 16 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Louis City II | Vancouver Whitecaps II |
|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers II | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| North Texas SC | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Austin FC II | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Colorado Rapids II | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: St Louis City II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 18/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 15 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
Vancouver Whitecaps II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/07 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 06/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 18/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Louis City II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Louis City II win (62%). Probabilities: St Louis City II 62%, draw 20%, Vancouver Whitecaps II 18%.
How many goals are expected in St Louis City II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II?
The model expects 3.6 goals (St Louis City II 2.38 · Vancouver Whitecaps II 1.22), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in St Louis City II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.