Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 27/07, 04:00
Prediction: Tacoma Defiance vs Colorado Rapids II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Tacoma Defiance1.65
Colorado Rapids II1.13
1X2
Tacoma Defiance
Draw
Colorado Rapids II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tacoma Defiance
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Colorado Rapids II
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tacoma Defiance
3–3
Colorado Rapids II
(6 last)
- Tacoma Defiance1-4Colorado Rapids II
- Colorado Rapids II6-4Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance4-2Colorado Rapids II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tacoma Defiance 1528 · Colorado Rapids II 1455
| Tacoma Defiance | Draw | Colorado Rapids II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tacoma Defiance (rating 1528 vs 1455).
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tacoma Defiance | Colorado Rapids II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4 | 1.5 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacoma Defiance 3–0–3 Colorado Rapids II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Colorado Rapids II |
| 21/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Colorado Rapids II | 6-4 HT 0-3 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 25/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Colorado Rapids II |
| 14/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Colorado Rapids II |
| 19/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Colorado Rapids II | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 19/06/22 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Colorado Rapids II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 16 | 43 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 15 | 40 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 23 | 37 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 27 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United FC II | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 32 | 29 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC II | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 8 | The Town | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 20 | 28 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 27 |
| 10 | Real Monarchs SLC | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 35 | 26 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 25 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 44 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 50 | 16 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 12 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tacoma Defiance | Colorado Rapids II |
|---|---|---|
| Real Monarchs SLC | 4-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Portland Timbers II | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Minnesota United FC II | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Houston Dynamo II | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Ventura County FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Austin FC II | 0-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Tacoma Defiance (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
Colorado Rapids II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 12/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tacoma Defiance vs Colorado Rapids II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tacoma Defiance win (49%). Probabilities: Tacoma Defiance 49%, draw 25%, Colorado Rapids II 26%.
How many goals are expected in Tacoma Defiance vs Colorado Rapids II?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Tacoma Defiance 1.65 · Colorado Rapids II 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tacoma Defiance vs Colorado Rapids II?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.