Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 17/08, 00:00
Prediction: FC Cincinnati II vs CT United
Team pages: FC Cincinnati II · CT United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.53Total
FC Cincinnati II1.49
CT United2.04
1X2
FC Cincinnati II
Draw
CT United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Cincinnati II
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
CT United
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Cincinnati II
0–2
CT United
(2 last)
- CT United4-0FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-3CT United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati II 1411 · CT United 1551
| FC Cincinnati II | Draw | CT United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Market | 27% | 23% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CT United (rating 1411 vs 1551).
- H2H favours CT United: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Cincinnati II | CT United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.4 | 2.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati II 0–0–2 CT United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | CT United | 4-0 HT 3-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 02/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-3 HT 0-1 | CT United |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 54 | 30 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 32 | 44 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 42 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 33 | 39 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 38 |
| 6 | Chicago Fire II | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 36 |
| 7 | Orlando City II | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 43 | 35 |
| 8 | Atlanta United II | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 36 | 34 |
| 9 | CT United | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 34 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 42 | 30 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 29 | 30 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 35 | 42 | 29 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 45 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 20 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 49 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Cincinnati II | CT United |
|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution II | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Toronto FC II | 1-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Orlando City II | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| New York Red Bulls II | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Columbus Crew II | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: CT United (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-4 | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
CT United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 13/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 19/06 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati II vs CT United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CT United win (50%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati II 27%, draw 23%, CT United 50%.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati II vs CT United?
The model expects 3.53 goals (FC Cincinnati II 1.49 · CT United 2.04), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati II vs CT United?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.