Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 23/08, 21:00

Prediction: Philadelphia Union II vs CT United

Team pages: Philadelphia Union II · CT United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Philadelphia Union II1.5

CT United1.78

1X2

32% 25% 44%

Philadelphia Union II Draw CT United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLDWW

CT United 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union II 1–1 CT United (2 last)

CT United1-2Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II1-2CT United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union II 1509 · CT United 1560

	Philadelphia Union II	Draw	CT United
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CT United (rating 1509 vs 1560).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union II	CT United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	2.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.6	1.3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.70

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.16 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.75
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:54 +19’	2.80	3.70	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:00 +13’	3.20	3.77	1.94
23:21 +6’	3.16▼	3.75▼	1.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union II 1–0–1 CT United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	CT United	1-2 HT 1-1	Philadelphia Union II
15/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Philadelphia Union II	1-2 HT 1-0	CT United

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	23	12	7	4	54	32	48
2	Chattanooga FC	23	11	7	5	43	32	44
3	New England Revolution II	23	11	6	6	39	32	42
4	Columbus Crew II	22	11	5	6	41	35	42
5	CT United	23	12	2	9	45	39	40
6	New York Red Bulls II	23	11	4	8	45	38	38
7	Atlanta United II	23	11	4	8	47	37	37
8	New York City FC II	22	10	4	8	40	34	36
9	Chicago Fire II	23	9	6	8	46	36	36
10	Orlando City II	23	8	7	8	42	43	35
11	Philadelphia Union II	23	9	4	10	28	32	33
12	Huntsville City	23	8	6	9	37	42	32
13	Toronto FC II	22	8	4	10	37	42	30
14	Carolina Core FC	23	5	8	10	32	40	26
15	FC Cincinnati II	23	4	2	17	24	53	16
16	Inter Miami CF II	22	2	4	16	20	53	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union II	CT United
New England Revolution II	4-3 W	1-2 L
FC Cincinnati II	2-1 W	3-2 W
New York City FC II	1-1 D	1-4 L
Columbus Crew II	0-2 L	2-1 W
New York Red Bulls II	0-5 L	2-1 W
Orlando City II	2-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CT United (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Philadelphia Union II

LWLWDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-2	4-3	2	10	W
08/08	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
02/08	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
26/07	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
19/07	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-2	0	0	L
12/07	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	4-0	0	3	W
29/06	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-5	0	4	L
22/06	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
14/06	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-1	7	8	L

CT United

WLWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
17/08	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	3-2	3	6	W
09/08	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
02/08	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
27/07	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
20/07	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
13/07	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
06/07	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-1	1	4	W
27/06	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	1-4	8	6	L
19/06	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	4-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union II vs CT United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CT United win (44%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union II 32%, draw 25%, CT United 44%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union II vs CT United?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Philadelphia Union II 1.5 · CT United 1.78), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union II vs CT United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.