Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 30/08, 23:30
Prediction: Real Monarchs SLC vs Tacoma Defiance
Team pages: Real Monarchs SLC · Tacoma Defiance
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.5Total
Real Monarchs SLC1.76
Tacoma Defiance1.74
1X2
Real Monarchs SLC
Draw
Tacoma Defiance
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Monarchs SLC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Tacoma Defiance
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Monarchs SLC
2–2–2
Tacoma Defiance
(6 last)
- Real Monarchs SLC2-4Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance1-0Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC3-0Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance2-2Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC2-1Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance1-1Real Monarchs SLC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Monarchs SLC 1432 · Tacoma Defiance 1525
| Real Monarchs SLC | Draw | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tacoma Defiance (rating 1432 vs 1525).
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Monarchs SLC | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.3 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.6 | 1.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Monarchs SLC 2–2–2 Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 22/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 01/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 18/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 12/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 14/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 24 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 48 | 19 | 56 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 26 | 50 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 48 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 32 | 45 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 40 | 41 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 46 | 44 | 40 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
| 8 | North Texas SC | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 42 | 35 |
| 9 | The Town | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 33 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC II | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 36 | 31 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 32 | 46 | 26 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 54 | 22 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 61 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 25 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 48 | 18 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Monarchs SLC | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids II | 1-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Portland Timbers II | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Los Angeles FC II | 2-2 D | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Monarchs SLC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 20/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Monarchs SLC vs Tacoma Defiance?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Monarchs SLC win (38%). Probabilities: Real Monarchs SLC 38%, draw 24%, Tacoma Defiance 38%.
How many goals are expected in Real Monarchs SLC vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model expects 3.5 goals (Real Monarchs SLC 1.76 · Tacoma Defiance 1.74), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Monarchs SLC vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.