Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 03/08, 12:15
Prediction: Melbourne Victory NPL vs FC Melbourne Srbija
Team pages: Melbourne Victory NPL · FC Melbourne Srbija
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Melbourne Victory NPL1.73
FC Melbourne Srbija1.3
1X2
Melbourne Victory NPL
Draw
FC Melbourne Srbija
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne Victory NPL
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
FC Melbourne Srbija
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne Victory NPL
0–1
FC Melbourne Srbija
(1 last)
- FC Melbourne Srbija2-1Melbourne Victory NPL
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory NPL 1551 · FC Melbourne Srbija 1575
| Melbourne Victory NPL | Draw | FC Melbourne Srbija | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 48% | 22% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne Victory NPL | FC Melbourne Srbija | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.1 | 2.6 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 1.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory NPL 0–0–1 FC Melbourne Srbija
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 19 | 50 |
| 2 | Northcote City | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 24 | 46 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 23 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 30 | 46 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 44 | 30 | 39 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 35 | 37 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 39 | 32 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 23 | 32 |
| 8 | Brunswick City | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 47 | 30 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 47 | 30 |
| 10 | North Geelong | 22 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 46 | 28 |
| 11 | Western United FC NPL | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 46 | 63 | 25 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 53 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 38 | 20 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 51 | 16 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne Victory NPL | FC Melbourne Srbija |
|---|---|---|
| North Sunshine Eagles | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Langwarrin | 3-3 D | 0-0 D |
| Western United FC NPL | 2-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Brunswick City | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Bulleen Lions | 4-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Brunswick Juventus | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Melbourne Knights | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Eltham Redbacks | 3-3 D | 2-0 W |
| Port Melbourne SC | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 2 L | 6 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory NPL (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne Victory NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 22/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 08/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 01/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
FC Melbourne Srbija
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 03/07 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory NPL vs FC Melbourne Srbija?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory NPL win (48%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory NPL 48%, draw 24%, FC Melbourne Srbija 29%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory NPL vs FC Melbourne Srbija?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Melbourne Victory NPL 1.73 · FC Melbourne Srbija 1.3), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory NPL vs FC Melbourne Srbija?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.