Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 01/08, 09:00
Prediction: North Geelong vs Bulleen Lions
Team pages: North Geelong · Bulleen Lions
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.52Total
North Geelong1.46
Bulleen Lions2.06
1X2
North Geelong
Draw
Bulleen Lions
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Geelong
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Bulleen Lions
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Geelong
2–4
Bulleen Lions
(6 last)
- Bulleen Lions3-0North Geelong
- Bulleen Lions1-0North Geelong
- North Geelong1-2Bulleen Lions
- North Geelong3-0Bulleen Lions
- Bulleen Lions2-3North Geelong
- North Geelong2-4Bulleen Lions
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Geelong 1454 · Bulleen Lions 1522
| North Geelong | Draw | Bulleen Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 23% | 50% |
| Market | 28% | 20% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bulleen Lions (rating 1454 vs 1522).
- H2H favours Bulleen Lions: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Geelong | Bulleen Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.1 | 2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6 | 2 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.4 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Geelong 2–0–4 Bulleen Lions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Bulleen Lions | 3-0 HT 2-0 | North Geelong |
| 08/06/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Bulleen Lions | 1-0 HT 0-0 | North Geelong |
| 02/03/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | North Geelong | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Bulleen Lions |
| 13/08/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | North Geelong | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Bulleen Lions |
| 21/05/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Bulleen Lions | 2-3 HT 2-0 | North Geelong |
| 24/04/21 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | North Geelong | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Bulleen Lions |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 17 | 47 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 22 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 44 | 30 | 45 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 24 | 43 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 35 | 37 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 30 | 36 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 49 | 38 | 32 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 23 | 32 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 46 | 30 |
| 9 | North Geelong | 21 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 42 | 28 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 44 | 27 |
| 11 | Western United FC NPL | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 44 | 59 | 25 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 49 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 38 | 19 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 51 | 13 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Geelong | Bulleen Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Brunswick Juventus | 0-3 L | 5-1 W |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 0-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Eltham Redbacks | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Port Melbourne SC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Manningham United Blues | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Melbourne Knights | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Langwarrin | 2-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Western United FC NPL | 2-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Bulleen Lions (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Geelong
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/06 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 1 | L |
Bulleen Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/07 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 5-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 16/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 01/06 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Geelong vs Bulleen Lions?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bulleen Lions win (51%). Probabilities: North Geelong 27%, draw 21%, Bulleen Lions 51%.
How many goals are expected in North Geelong vs Bulleen Lions?
The model expects 3.52 goals (North Geelong 1.46 · Bulleen Lions 2.06), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in North Geelong vs Bulleen Lions?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.