Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 31/07, 12:30

Prediction: Melbourne Knights vs Western United FC NPL

Team pages: Melbourne Knights · Western United FC NPL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

Melbourne Knights3.07

Western United FC NPL1.14

1X2

75% 14% 11%

Melbourne Knights Draw Western United FC NPL

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne Knights 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Western United FC NPL 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne Knights 0–1 Western United FC NPL (1 last)

Western United FC NPL3-2Melbourne Knights

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne Knights 1558 · Western United FC NPL 1475

	Melbourne Knights	Draw	Western United FC NPL
Our model	75%	15%	10%
Market	75%	14%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Knights (rating 1558 vs 1475).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne Knights	Western United FC NPL
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	2 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.98

2 (+2.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.20▲	Bet365 1.20
X	7.00 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50
2	9.00 → 8.50▼	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +8’	1.18	7.00	9.00
01:59 +7’	1.20▲	6.50▼	8.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Knights 0–0–1 Western United FC NPL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Western United FC NPL	3-2 HT 1-1	Melbourne Knights

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	22	15	2	5	42	17	47
2	Brunswick Juventus	22	15	0	7	44	30	45
3	Northcote City	22	13	4	5	40	24	43
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	22	11	4	7	51	35	37
5	Bulleen Lions	22	10	6	6	40	30	36
6	Eltham Redbacks	22	9	5	8	49	38	32
7	FC Melbourne Srbija	21	10	2	9	26	23	32
8	Manningham United Blues	22	9	3	10	38	46	30
9	North Geelong	21	9	1	11	33	42	28
10	Brunswick City	22	8	3	11	41	44	27
11	Western United FC NPL	22	8	1	13	44	59	25
12	Langwarrin	22	6	5	11	37	49	23
13	North Sunshine Eagles	22	5	4	13	29	38	19
14	Port Melbourne SC	22	3	4	15	12	51	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne Knights	Western United FC NPL
Manningham United Blues	5-1 W	4-3 W
Brunswick City	2-0 W	0-5 L
Northcote City	1-0 W	1-2 L
Bulleen Lions	3-1 W	2-4 L
FC Melbourne Srbija	0-2 L	0-3 L
Brunswick Juventus	0-1 L	4-5 L
North Sunshine Eagles	1-1 D	2-3 L
Melbourne Victory NPL	2-1 W	3-2 W
Eltham Redbacks	4-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne Knights (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne Knights

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	5-1	5-1	3	2	W
17/07	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	2-0	12	5	W
10/07	Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
03/07	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
20/06	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
12/06	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
06/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
01/06	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
24/05	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
15/05	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	4-0	5	2	W

Western United FC NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	0-5	3	2	L
19/07	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	2-4	3	3	L
10/07	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-2	4-5	3	2	L
05/07	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	3-2	1	8	W
19/06	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	4-3	8	2	W
13/06	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
06/06	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-1	4-3	6	5	W
31/05	Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
23/05	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
16/05	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	2-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne Knights vs Western United FC NPL?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Knights win (75%). Probabilities: Melbourne Knights 75%, draw 14%, Western United FC NPL 11%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne Knights vs Western United FC NPL?

The model expects 4.21 goals (Melbourne Knights 3.07 · Western United FC NPL 1.14), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne Knights vs Western United FC NPL?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.