Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 24/07, 12:30

Prediction: Brunswick City vs Western United FC NPL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Brunswick City2.39

Western United FC NPL1.99

1X2

47% 21% 32%

Brunswick City Draw Western United FC NPL

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Brunswick City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Western United FC NPL 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Brunswick City 4–1–1 Western United FC NPL (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brunswick City 1482 · Western United FC NPL 1471

	Brunswick City	Draw	Western United FC NPL
Our model	47%	21%	32%
Market	47%	21%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Brunswick City: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brunswick City	Western United FC NPL
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	2.3 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.9	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.8	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:04 +3’	1.91	4.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brunswick City 4–1–1 Western United FC NPL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Western United FC NPL	2-4 HT 1-1	Brunswick City
01/06/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Western United FC NPL	3-1 HT 2-0	Brunswick City
21/02/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Brunswick City	2-2 HT 1-1	Western United FC NPL
21/07/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Western United FC NPL	1-2 HT 1-1	Brunswick City
19/04/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Brunswick City	2-1 HT 2-1	Western United FC NPL
28/05/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Western United FC NPL	1-2 HT 1-1	Brunswick City

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	21	14	2	5	37	16	44
2	Brunswick Juventus	21	14	0	7	41	30	42
3	Northcote City	21	12	4	5	37	23	40
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	21	10	4	7	50	35	34
5	Bulleen Lions	21	9	6	6	37	29	33
6	Eltham Redbacks	21	9	5	7	49	36	32
7	Manningham United Blues	21	9	3	9	37	41	30
8	FC Melbourne Srbija	20	9	2	9	24	23	29
9	North Geelong	20	9	1	10	33	39	28
10	Western United FC NPL	21	8	1	12	44	54	25
11	Brunswick City	21	7	3	11	36	44	24
12	Langwarrin	21	6	5	10	36	46	23
13	North Sunshine Eagles	21	5	4	12	29	37	19
14	Port Melbourne SC	21	3	4	14	11	48	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brunswick City	Western United FC NPL
Bulleen Lions	1-1 D	2-4 L
Brunswick Juventus	2-7 L	4-5 L
Melbourne Victory NPL	1-4 L	3-2 W
Eltham Redbacks	3-1 W	4-3 W
Port Melbourne SC	3-1 W	0-0 D
Manningham United Blues	3-1 W	4-3 W
Northcote City	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Melbourne Srbija	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Brunswick City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Brunswick City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
13/07	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
03/07	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-3	2-7	2	2	L
22/06	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
12/06	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	3-1	4	7	W
06/06	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	3-1	7	8	W
29/05	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	3-1	6	0	W
22/05	Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
16/05	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-2	1-2	9	2	L
12/05	Avondale Australia Cup Qualifying	0-3	0-4	3	3	L

Western United FC NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	2-4	3	3	L
10/07	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-2	4-5	3	2	L
05/07	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	3-2	1	8	W
19/06	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	4-3	8	2	W
13/06	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
06/06	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-1	4-3	6	5	W
31/05	Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
23/05	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
16/05	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	2-3	4	3	L
10/05	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-1	3-2	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brunswick City vs Western United FC NPL?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brunswick City win (47%). Probabilities: Brunswick City 47%, draw 21%, Western United FC NPL 32%.

How many goals are expected in Brunswick City vs Western United FC NPL?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Brunswick City 2.39 · Western United FC NPL 1.99), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Brunswick City vs Western United FC NPL?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.