Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 29/07, 20:00

Prediction: Breidablik (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.33Total

Breidablik (W)3.17

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1.17

1X2

76% 14% 10%

Breidablik (W) Draw Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Breidablik (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Breidablik (W) 6–0 Thor/KA Akureyri (W) (6 last)

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-3Breidablik (W)
Breidablik (W)9-2Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)0-2Breidablik (W)
Breidablik (W)4-1Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Breidablik (W)6-1Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Breidablik (W)4-2Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Breidablik (W) 1553 · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1457

	Breidablik (W)	Draw	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	76%	14%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 4.33 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Breidablik (W) (rating 1553 vs 1457).
H2H favours Breidablik (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Breidablik (W)	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.7	1.5 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	5 / 8	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.20▲	Bet365 1.20
X	6.50 → 6.25▼	Bet365 6.25
2	9.00 → 8.50▼	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +9’	1.18	6.50	9.00
15:59 +7’	1.20▲	6.25▼	8.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Breidablik (W) 6–0–0 Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-3 HT 0-0	Breidablik (W)
20/09/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Breidablik (W)	9-2 HT 6-1	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
16/06/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Breidablik (W)
28/03/25 Iceland Cup Women	Breidablik (W)	4-1 HT 2-0	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
22/09/24 Iceland Premier League Women	Breidablik (W)	6-1 HT 6-0	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
10/08/24 Iceland Premier League Women	Breidablik (W)	4-2 HT 1-1	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Standings · Iceland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	12	9	2	1	44	19	29
2	Breidablik (W)	12	9	0	3	38	16	27
3	Stjarnan (W)	12	6	3	3	23	18	21
4	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	12	6	2	4	19	20	20
5	Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	12	4	3	5	16	23	15
6	Throttur Reykjavik (W)	12	4	1	7	16	21	13
7	Fram Reykjavik (W)	12	4	1	7	14	26	13
8	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	12	3	3	6	18	23	12
9	Valur Reykjavik (W)	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
10	Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	12	3	1	8	20	32	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Breidablik (W)	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Valur Reykjavik (W)	7-1 W	0-0 D
Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	4-1 W	4-6 L
Fram Reykjavik (W)	2-3 L	2-3 L
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	3-0 W	2-1 W
Stjarnan (W)	1-3 L	2-3 L
Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	5-0 W	1-0 W
Throttur Reykjavik (W)	2-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Breidablik (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Breidablik (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	6-0	7-1	7	2	W
15/07	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	4-1	10	0	W
09/07	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	2-3	10	1	L
22/06	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	3-0	3-0	7	1	W
13/06	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	1-3	7	2	L
30/05	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	5-0	0	1	W
25/05	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	2-3	8	3	L
20/05	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	3-1	12	3	W
16/05	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Cup Women	0-1	2-3	7	7	L
11/05	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	3-2	12	4	W

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/07	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
09/07	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
22/06	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
13/06	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
30/05	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-4	4-6	6	2	L
25/05	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-2	2-3	6	3	L
20/05	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
15/05	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Cup Women	1-1	1-4	5	4	L
10/05	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Breidablik (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Breidablik (W) win (76%). Probabilities: Breidablik (W) 76%, draw 14%, Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in Breidablik (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?

The model expects 4.33 goals (Breidablik (W) 3.17 · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Breidablik (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.