Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 07/08, 20:00

Prediction: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)

Team pages: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) · Fram Reykjavik (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1.94

Fram Reykjavik (W)1.6

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Draw Fram Reykjavik (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Fram Reykjavik (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 2–1–2 Fram Reykjavik (W) (5 last)

Fram Reykjavik (W)3-2Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-1Fram Reykjavik (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-2Fram Reykjavik (W)
Fram Reykjavik (W)1-3Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)5-1Fram Reykjavik (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1456 · Fram Reykjavik (W) 1527

	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Draw	Fram Reykjavik (W)
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fram Reykjavik (W) (rating 1456 vs 1527).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Fram Reykjavik (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	2.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	1.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:45 +6’	2.00	3.70	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 2–1–2 Fram Reykjavik (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Fram Reykjavik (W)	3-2 HT 2-2	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
09/10/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Fram Reykjavik (W)
30/08/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Fram Reykjavik (W)
17/05/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Fram Reykjavik (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
23/02/25 Iceland Cup Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	5-1 HT 3-1	Fram Reykjavik (W)

Standings · Iceland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	13	9	3	1	46	21	30
2	Breidablik (W)	13	10	0	3	40	16	30
3	Stjarnan (W)	13	6	4	3	23	18	22
4	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	13	6	3	4	21	22	21
5	Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	13	4	4	5	16	23	16
6	Fram Reykjavik (W)	13	5	1	7	18	27	16
7	Throttur Reykjavik (W)	13	4	2	7	17	22	14
8	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	13	3	3	7	18	25	12
9	Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	13	3	2	8	21	33	11
10	Valur Reykjavik (W)	13	2	4	7	12	25	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Fram Reykjavik (W)
Breidablik (W)	0-2 L	3-2 W
Stjarnan (W)	2-3 L	0-3 L
Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	1-0 W	0-3 L
Throttur Reykjavik (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Valur Reykjavik (W)	0-0 D	4-1 W
Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	4-6 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
19/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/07	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
09/07	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
22/06	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
13/06	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
30/05	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-4	4-6	6	2	L
25/05	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-2	2-3	6	3	L
20/05	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
15/05	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Cup Women	1-1	1-4	5	4	L

Fram Reykjavik (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	4-1	4	6	W
25/07	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Cup Women	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
19/07	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
14/07	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
09/07	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	3-2	9	1	W
22/06	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
17/06	Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) Iceland Cup Women	5-0	7-1	–	–	W
13/06	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
30/05	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	2-6	3	1	L
25/05	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-2	3-2	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Thor/KA Akureyri (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 45%, draw 24%, Fram Reykjavik (W) 31%.

How many goals are expected in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1.94 · Fram Reykjavik (W) 1.6), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.