Football · Iceland Premier League · 03/08, 21:15
Prediction: Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan
Team pages: Valur Reykjavik · Stjarnan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.88Total
Valur Reykjavik1.98
Stjarnan1.9
1X2
Valur Reykjavik
Draw
Stjarnan
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Valur Reykjavik
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Stjarnan
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valur Reykjavik
3–1–2
Stjarnan
(6 last)
- Stjarnan2-4Valur Reykjavik
- Valur Reykjavik3-2Stjarnan
- Valur Reykjavik1-2Stjarnan
- Valur Reykjavik3-1Stjarnan
- Stjarnan3-2Valur Reykjavik
- Valur Reykjavik2-2Stjarnan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valur Reykjavik 1478 · Stjarnan 1489
| Valur Reykjavik | Draw | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| Market | 40% | 24% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Valur Reykjavik: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 1.7 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 7.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valur Reykjavik 3–1–2 Stjarnan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 04/10/25 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Stjarnan |
| 14/09/25 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Stjarnan |
| 01/07/25 Iceland Cup | Valur Reykjavik | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Stjarnan |
| 14/06/25 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 23/09/24 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Stjarnan |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 12 | 43 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 29 | 37 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 58 | 36 | 35 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 35 | 26 | 29 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 32 | 19 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 33 | 19 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 18 |
| 8 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 16 |
| 9 | KA Akureyri | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 32 | 15 |
| 10 | Stjarnan | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 41 | 15 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 31 | 13 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan |
|---|---|---|
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| IA Akranes | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| KR Reykjavik | 1-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Valur Reykjavik (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valur Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Zrinjski Mostar UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 23/07 | Zrinjski Mostar UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 16/06 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 26/05 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
Stjarnan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | FC Ilves UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | FC Ilves UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 16/07 | Vikingur Gota UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/07 | Vikingur Gota UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 03/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 17 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/06 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
2-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Valur Reykjavik win (40%). Probabilities: Valur Reykjavik 40%, draw 23%, Stjarnan 37%.
How many goals are expected in Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan?
The model expects 3.88 goals (Valur Reykjavik 1.98 · Stjarnan 1.9), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.