Football · Iceland Premier League · 09/08, 20:00
Prediction: Stjarnan vs Keflavik
Team pages: Stjarnan · Keflavik
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.94Total
Stjarnan2.25
Keflavik1.68
1X2
Stjarnan
Draw
Keflavik
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stjarnan
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Keflavik
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stjarnan
3–2–1
Keflavik
(6 last)
- Keflavik1-1Stjarnan
- Stjarnan2-1Keflavik
- Stjarnan4-2Keflavik
- Stjarnan1-4Keflavik
- Stjarnan3-0Keflavik
- Keflavik1-1Stjarnan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stjarnan 1511 · Keflavik 1489
| Stjarnan | Draw | Keflavik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| Market | 50% | 22% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Stjarnan: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stjarnan | Keflavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.1 | 1.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 7.5 | 2.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stjarnan 3–2–1 Keflavik
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Stjarnan |
| 30/01/26 Iceland League Cup | Stjarnan | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Keflavik |
| 18/06/25 Iceland Cup | Stjarnan | 4-2 HT 3-2 | Keflavik |
| 25/02/25 Iceland League Cup | Stjarnan | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Keflavik |
| 03/09/23 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Keflavik |
| 11/06/23 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Stjarnan |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 14 | 44 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 29 | 37 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 37 | 36 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 27 | 29 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 33 | 22 |
| 6 | Valur Reykjavik | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 35 | 19 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 36 | 19 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 43 | 18 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 16 |
| 10 | KA Akureyri | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 35 | 15 |
| 11 | Thor Akureyri | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 42 | 15 |
| 12 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 32 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stjarnan | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|
| Valur Reykjavik | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| IA Akranes | 1-5 L | 5-2 W |
| KR Reykjavik | 0-5 L | 3-2 W |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| KA Akureyri | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-2 L | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stjarnan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | FC Ilves UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | FC Ilves UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 16/07 | Vikingur Gota UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/07 | Vikingur Gota UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 03/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 17 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Keflavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 24/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 5-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stjarnan vs Keflavik?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stjarnan win (50%). Probabilities: Stjarnan 50%, draw 22%, Keflavik 28%.
How many goals are expected in Stjarnan vs Keflavik?
The model expects 3.94 goals (Stjarnan 2.25 · Keflavik 1.68), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Stjarnan vs Keflavik?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.