Football · Iceland Premier League · 09/08, 21:15
Prediction: Breidablik vs Valur Reykjavik
Team pages: Breidablik · Valur Reykjavik
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.65Total
Breidablik2.29
Valur Reykjavik1.36
1X2
Breidablik
Draw
Valur Reykjavik
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Breidablik
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Valur Reykjavik
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Breidablik
2–2–2
Valur Reykjavik
(6 last)
- Valur Reykjavik3-2Breidablik
- Valur Reykjavik1-1Breidablik
- Valur Reykjavik2-1Breidablik
- Breidablik2-1Valur Reykjavik
- Breidablik2-2Valur Reykjavik
- Valur Reykjavik0-2Breidablik
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Breidablik 1540 · Valur Reykjavik 1468
| Breidablik | Draw | Valur Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 21% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Breidablik (rating 1540 vs 1468).
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Breidablik | Valur Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.9 | 1.3 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Breidablik 2–2–2 Valur Reykjavik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Breidablik |
| 22/09/25 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Breidablik |
| 10/08/25 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Breidablik |
| 19/05/25 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 06/10/24 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 15/08/24 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Breidablik |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 14 | 44 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 29 | 37 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 37 | 36 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 27 | 29 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 33 | 22 |
| 6 | Valur Reykjavik | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 35 | 19 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 36 | 19 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 43 | 18 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 16 |
| 10 | KA Akureyri | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 35 | 15 |
| 11 | Thor Akureyri | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 42 | 15 |
| 12 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 32 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Breidablik | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Keflavik | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| IA Akranes | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Stjarnan | 4-4 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Breidablik (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Breidablik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 27/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 20/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 13/07 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 16/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
3-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | KF Aegir Iceland Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Valur Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/07 | Zrinjski Mostar UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 23/07 | Zrinjski Mostar UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 16/06 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Breidablik vs Valur Reykjavik?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Breidablik win (58%). Probabilities: Breidablik 58%, draw 21%, Valur Reykjavik 21%.
How many goals are expected in Breidablik vs Valur Reykjavik?
The model expects 3.65 goals (Breidablik 2.29 · Valur Reykjavik 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Breidablik vs Valur Reykjavik?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.