Football · Iceland Premier League · 05/08, 20:00
Prediction: Keflavik vs KA Akureyri
Team pages: Keflavik · KA Akureyri
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.76Total
Keflavik2.14
KA Akureyri1.62
1X2
Keflavik
Draw
KA Akureyri
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Keflavik
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
KA Akureyri
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Keflavik
2–1–3
KA Akureyri
(6 last)
- KA Akureyri1-2Keflavik
- KA Akureyri4-2Keflavik
- Keflavik3-4KA Akureyri
- KA Akureyri0-0Keflavik
- Keflavik2-1KA Akureyri
- Keflavik1-3KA Akureyri
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keflavik 1493 · KA Akureyri 1447
| Keflavik | Draw | KA Akureyri | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keflavik (rating 1493 vs 1447).
- H2H favours KA Akureyri: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Keflavik | KA Akureyri | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.2 | 1.7 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 2.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keflavik 2–1–3 KA Akureyri
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Keflavik |
| 20/09/23 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Keflavik |
| 24/07/23 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 3-4 HT 1-2 | KA Akureyri |
| 23/04/23 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Keflavik |
| 04/02/23 Iceland League Cup | Keflavik | 2-1 HT 0-1 | KA Akureyri |
| 24/07/22 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 1-3 HT 1-0 | KA Akureyri |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 12 | 43 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 29 | 37 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 58 | 36 | 35 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 35 | 26 | 29 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 32 | 19 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 33 | 19 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 18 |
| 8 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 16 |
| 9 | KA Akureyri | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 32 | 15 |
| 10 | Stjarnan | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 41 | 15 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 31 | 13 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 12 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Keflavik | KA Akureyri |
|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 1-5 L | 2-3 L |
| IA Akranes | 5-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Breidablik | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Fram Reykjavik | 1-1 D | 3-4 L |
| KR Reykjavik | 3-2 W | 3-5 L |
| Valur Reykjavik | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-6 L | 2-2 D |
| Thor Akureyri | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Stjarnan | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Keflavik (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keflavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 5-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
KA Akureyri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 12/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 28/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 3-5 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keflavik vs KA Akureyri?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Keflavik win (49%). Probabilities: Keflavik 49%, draw 23%, KA Akureyri 28%.
How many goals are expected in Keflavik vs KA Akureyri?
The model expects 3.76 goals (Keflavik 2.14 · KA Akureyri 1.62), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Keflavik vs KA Akureyri?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.