Football · Iceland Premier League · 01/09, 19:30

Prediction: KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik

Team pages: KR Reykjavik · Vikingur Reykjavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

KR Reykjavik2.11

Vikingur Reykjavik2.3

1X2

36% 22% 43%

KR Reykjavik Draw Vikingur Reykjavik

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

KR Reykjavik 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWDWDW

Vikingur Reykjavik 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDDWW

Head-to-head

KR Reykjavik 1–5 Vikingur Reykjavik (6 last)

Vikingur Reykjavik2-0KR Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik1-0KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik0-7Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik3-2KR Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik5-1KR Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik2-5KR Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KR Reykjavik 1537 · Vikingur Reykjavik 1546

	KR Reykjavik	Draw	Vikingur Reykjavik
Our model	36%	21%	43%
Market	36%	22%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vikingur Reykjavik: 5-0-1.
High corners: 16 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KR Reykjavik	Vikingur Reykjavik
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 2.2	3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 8	4.5 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X4.00

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.86 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:31 +11’	2.50	4.00	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:40	2.71	4.12	2.19
14:20 +1’	2.77▲	4.16▲	2.14▼
07:35 +1’	2.73▼	4.14▼	2.18▲
14:43 +2’	2.86▲	4.20▲	2.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KR Reykjavik 1–0–5 Vikingur Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Iceland Premier League	Vikingur Reykjavik	2-0 HT 1-0	KR Reykjavik
19/02/26 Iceland League Cup	Vikingur Reykjavik	1-0 HT 0-0	KR Reykjavik
14/09/25 Iceland Premier League	KR Reykjavik	0-7 HT 0-4	Vikingur Reykjavik
16/06/25 Iceland Premier League	Vikingur Reykjavik	3-2 HT 2-2	KR Reykjavik
28/03/25 Iceland Pre-Season Cup	Vikingur Reykjavik	5-1 HT 2-1	KR Reykjavik
14/01/25 Iceland Pre-Season Cup	Vikingur Reykjavik	2-5 HT 1-4	KR Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	20	16	3	1	64	18	51
2	KR Reykjavik	20	13	4	3	72	45	43
3	Fram Reykjavik	20	13	4	3	52	38	43
4	Breidablik	20	8	6	6	42	37	30
5	Keflavik	20	8	4	8	31	34	28
6	IA Akranes	20	7	5	8	34	38	26
7	Stjarnan	20	7	3	10	38	48	24
8	Valur Reykjavik	20	7	2	11	35	42	23
9	FH Hafnarfjordur	20	3	9	8	25	37	18
10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	20	4	5	11	30	42	17
11	KA Akureyri	20	4	4	12	31	45	16
12	Thor Akureyri	20	4	3	13	20	50	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KR Reykjavik	Vikingur Reykjavik
KA Akureyri	5-3 W	3-2 W
Breidablik	3-3 D	4-1 W
Fram Reykjavik	5-2 W	5-0 W
FH Hafnarfjordur	1-1 D	4-2 W
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	5-2 W	2-2 D
Thor Akureyri	3-3 D	1-2 L
Keflavik	2-3 L	5-1 W
IA Akranes	5-3 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KR Reykjavik

LWLDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	4-2	5-3	10	0	W
16/08	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-3	3-3	14	5	D
10/08	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	3-1	5-2	5	0	W
05/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
19/07	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	2-0	5-0	8	8	W
12/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	2-1	5-2	6	5	W
02/07	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-3	3-3	8	7	D
28/06	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
22/06	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	2-2	5-3	6	4	W
16/06	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-1	0-2	10	5	L

Vikingur Reykjavik

WWWWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
16/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	2-1	4-2	9	5	W
09/08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	9	7	D
02/08	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
24/07	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	2-0	5-1	12	3	W
18/07	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-2	10	6	L
02/07	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-2	3-2	14	8	W
25/06	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-0	4-1	3	6	W
21/06	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	2-0	5-0	7	4	W
16/06	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vikingur Reykjavik win (43%). Probabilities: KR Reykjavik 36%, draw 22%, Vikingur Reykjavik 43%.

How many goals are expected in KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik?

The model expects 4.41 goals (KR Reykjavik 2.11 · Vikingur Reykjavik 2.3), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.