Football · Iceland Premier League · 31/08, 21:15
Prediction: Breidablik vs Stjarnan
Team pages: Breidablik · Stjarnan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.15Total
Breidablik2.3
Stjarnan1.85
1X2
Breidablik
Draw
Stjarnan
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Breidablik
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Stjarnan
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Breidablik
5–1–0
Stjarnan
(6 last)
- Stjarnan4-4Breidablik
- Stjarnan2-3Breidablik
- Stjarnan1-4Breidablik
- Breidablik2-1Stjarnan
- Breidablik4-2Stjarnan
- Breidablik2-1Stjarnan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Breidablik 1509 · Stjarnan 1501
| Breidablik | Draw | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 21% | 31% |
| Market | 47% | 23% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Breidablik: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 15.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Breidablik | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 2 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 7.3 | 3.5 / 7.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Breidablik 5–1–0 Stjarnan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/26 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 4-4 HT 2-3 | Breidablik |
| 26/10/25 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Breidablik |
| 27/06/25 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Breidablik |
| 23/04/25 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Stjarnan |
| 31/01/25 Europe Friendlies | Breidablik | 4-2 HT 0-0 | Stjarnan |
| 19/10/24 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Stjarnan |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 64 | 18 | 51 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 72 | 45 | 43 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 38 | 43 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 42 | 37 | 30 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 28 |
| 6 | IA Akranes | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 38 | 26 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 48 | 24 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 42 | 23 |
| 9 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 37 | 18 |
| 10 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 42 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 45 | 16 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 50 | 15 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Breidablik | Stjarnan |
|---|---|---|
| Fram Reykjavik | 3-4 L | 1-3 L |
| KR Reykjavik | 3-3 D | 0-5 L |
| Valur Reykjavik | 1-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Thor Akureyri | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Keflavik | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| IA Akranes | 2-1 W | 1-5 L |
| KA Akureyri | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Breidablik (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Breidablik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-4 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 27/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 20/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 13/07 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
Stjarnan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 03/08 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 03/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 17 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/06 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
2-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Breidablik vs Stjarnan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Breidablik win (47%). Probabilities: Breidablik 47%, draw 22%, Stjarnan 30%.
How many goals are expected in Breidablik vs Stjarnan?
The model expects 4.15 goals (Breidablik 2.3 · Stjarnan 1.85), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Breidablik vs Stjarnan?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.