Football · Iceland Premier League · 30/08, 19:00
Prediction: Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri
Team pages: Fram Reykjavik · KA Akureyri
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.31Total
Fram Reykjavik2.71
KA Akureyri1.6
1X2
Fram Reykjavik
Draw
KA Akureyri
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Fram Reykjavik
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
KA Akureyri
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fram Reykjavik
3–3
KA Akureyri
(6 last)
- KA Akureyri3-4Fram Reykjavik
- KA Akureyri2-0Fram Reykjavik
- Fram Reykjavik1-2KA Akureyri
- KA Akureyri2-4Fram Reykjavik
- KA Akureyri2-5Fram Reykjavik
- Fram Reykjavik1-4KA Akureyri
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fram Reykjavik 1557 · KA Akureyri 1428
| Fram Reykjavik | Draw | KA Akureyri | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.31 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fram Reykjavik (rating 1557 vs 1428).
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fram Reykjavik | KA Akureyri | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.4 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fram Reykjavik 3–0–3 KA Akureyri
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/26 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 3-4 HT 2-3 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 24/08/25 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 29/05/25 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 1-2 HT 1-1 | KA Akureyri |
| 15/05/25 Iceland Cup | KA Akureyri | 2-4 HT 1-3 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 27/02/25 Iceland League Cup | KA Akureyri | 2-5 HT 1-3 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 26/10/24 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 1-4 HT 0-2 | KA Akureyri |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 64 | 18 | 51 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 72 | 45 | 43 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 38 | 43 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 42 | 37 | 30 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 28 |
| 6 | IA Akranes | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 38 | 26 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 48 | 24 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 42 | 23 |
| 9 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 37 | 18 |
| 10 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 42 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 45 | 16 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 50 | 15 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fram Reykjavik | KA Akureyri |
|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 4-3 W | 1-3 L |
| Stjarnan | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| KR Reykjavik | 2-5 L | 3-5 L |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Valur Reykjavik | 3-2 W | 4-4 D |
| Thor Akureyri | 6-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Keflavik | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| IA Akranes | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 0-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Fram Reykjavik (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fram Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
4-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 2-5 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 26/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/07 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 29/06 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
KA Akureyri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-4 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/08 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 05/08 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 27/07 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 12/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 28/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fram Reykjavik win (60%). Probabilities: Fram Reykjavik 60%, draw 20%, KA Akureyri 20%.
How many goals are expected in Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri?
The model expects 4.31 goals (Fram Reykjavik 2.71 · KA Akureyri 1.6), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.