Football · Iceland Premier League · 04/08, 20:30
Prediction: Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik
Team pages: Thor Akureyri · Breidablik
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.82Total
Thor Akureyri1.5
Breidablik2.32
1X2
Thor Akureyri
Draw
Breidablik
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Thor Akureyri
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Breidablik
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Thor Akureyri
1–1–4
Breidablik
(6 last)
- Breidablik4-0Thor Akureyri
- Thor Akureyri0-1Breidablik
- Thor Akureyri1-2Breidablik
- Thor Akureyri2-0Breidablik
- Breidablik3-2Thor Akureyri
- Breidablik1-1Thor Akureyri
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thor Akureyri 1428 · Breidablik 1578
| Thor Akureyri | Draw | Breidablik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| Market | 23% | 22% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Breidablik (rating 1428 vs 1578).
- H2H favours Breidablik: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Thor Akureyri | Breidablik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.5 | 2.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 3.4 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thor Akureyri 1–1–4 Breidablik
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Thor Akureyri |
| 14/03/24 Iceland League Cup | Thor Akureyri | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Breidablik |
| 06/03/22 Iceland League Cup | Thor Akureyri | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Breidablik |
| 28/09/14 Iceland Premier League | Thor Akureyri | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Breidablik |
| 02/07/14 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Thor Akureyri |
| 19/06/14 Iceland Cup | Breidablik | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Thor Akureyri |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 12 | 43 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 58 | 36 | 35 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 28 | 34 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 35 | 26 | 29 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 32 | 19 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 33 | 19 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 18 |
| 8 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 16 |
| 9 | KA Akureyri | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 32 | 15 |
| 10 | Stjarnan | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 41 | 15 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 31 | 13 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 12 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Thor Akureyri | Breidablik |
|---|---|---|
| KA Akureyri | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Fram Reykjavik | 1-6 L | 3-4 L |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Stjarnan | 1-3 L | 4-4 D |
| Keflavik | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| IA Akranes | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Breidablik (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thor Akureyri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/07 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
Breidablik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 20/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 13/07 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 16/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
3-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | KF Aegir Iceland Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Breidablik win (55%). Probabilities: Thor Akureyri 23%, draw 22%, Breidablik 55%.
How many goals are expected in Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik?
The model expects 3.82 goals (Thor Akureyri 1.5 · Breidablik 2.32), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.