Football · Iceland Premier League · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik

Team pages: IA Akranes · KR Reykjavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.57Total

IA Akranes1.98

KR Reykjavik2.6

1X2

29% 20% 51%

IA Akranes Draw KR Reykjavik

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

IA Akranes 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDWWDD

KR Reykjavik 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDWDWD

Head-to-head

IA Akranes 3–3 KR Reykjavik (6 last)

KR Reykjavik5-3IA Akranes
IA Akranes3-2KR Reykjavik
IA Akranes1-0KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik5-0IA Akranes
KR Reykjavik4-2IA Akranes
IA Akranes2-1KR Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IA Akranes 1492 · KR Reykjavik 1554

	IA Akranes	Draw	KR Reykjavik
Our model	29%	20%	51%
Market	29%	21%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 4.57 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KR Reykjavik (rating 1492 vs 1554).
High corners: 13.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IA Akranes	KR Reykjavik
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	3.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	3.9 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.33

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.90

Under 4.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.30
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.67 ★
2	1.80 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.81

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +2’	3.10	4.20	1.80
04:46 +4’	3.10	4.33▲	1.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +1’	3.30	4.74	1.79
01:49 +1’	3.30	4.73▼	1.80▲
14:02	3.30	4.67▼	1.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IA Akranes 3–0–3 KR Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/06/26 Iceland Premier League	KR Reykjavik	5-3 HT 2-2	IA Akranes
27/09/25 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	3-2 HT 1-0	KR Reykjavik
14/07/25 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	1-0 HT 0-0	KR Reykjavik
27/04/25 Iceland Premier League	KR Reykjavik	5-0 HT 2-0	IA Akranes
01/09/24 Iceland Premier League	KR Reykjavik	4-2 HT 3-1	IA Akranes
18/06/24 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	2-1 HT 0-0	KR Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	21	16	4	1	65	19	52
2	KR Reykjavik	21	13	5	3	73	46	44
3	Fram Reykjavik	21	13	5	3	54	40	44
4	Breidablik	21	8	6	7	42	39	30
5	Keflavik	21	8	4	9	32	36	28
6	IA Akranes	21	7	6	8	36	40	27
7	Stjarnan	21	8	3	10	40	48	27
8	Valur Reykjavik	21	7	3	11	37	44	24
9	FH Hafnarfjordur	21	4	9	8	27	38	21
10	Thor Akureyri	21	5	3	13	21	50	18
11	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	21	4	5	12	30	43	17
12	KA Akureyri	21	4	5	12	33	47	17

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IA Akranes	KR Reykjavik
FH Hafnarfjordur	1-1 D	1-1 D
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3-1 W	5-2 W
Thor Akureyri	2-0 W	3-3 D
Vikingur Reykjavik	2-2 D	1-1 D
Stjarnan	5-1 W	5-0 W
Keflavik	2-5 L	2-3 L
KA Akureyri	2-3 L	5-3 W
Breidablik	1-2 L	3-3 D
Fram Reykjavik	0-2 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KR Reykjavik (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IA Akranes

LLLLWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-2	10	3	D
23/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-1	10	7	D
16/08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
09/08	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/08	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
26/07	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	3-0	5-1	2	2	W
20/07	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	0-2	2-5	5	3	L
12/07	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
04/07	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
29/06	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	2	L

KR Reykjavik

WLDWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-1	13	5	D
23/08	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	4-2	5-3	10	0	W
16/08	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-3	3-3	14	5	D
10/08	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	3-1	5-2	5	0	W
05/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
19/07	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	2-0	5-0	8	8	W
12/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	2-1	5-2	6	5	W
02/07	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-3	3-3	8	7	D
28/06	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
22/06	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	2-2	5-3	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KR Reykjavik win (51%). Probabilities: IA Akranes 29%, draw 20%, KR Reykjavik 51%.

How many goals are expected in IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik?

The model expects 4.57 goals (IA Akranes 1.98 · KR Reykjavik 2.6), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.