Football · Iceland Premier League · 13/09, 18:00

Prediction: Stjarnan vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Team pages: Stjarnan · IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Stjarnan2.09

IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.34

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Stjarnan Draw IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Stjarnan 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWLWWD

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Stjarnan 2–1–3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (6 last)

Stjarnan2-2IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar2-1Stjarnan
IBV Vestmannaeyjar1-0Stjarnan
Stjarnan2-3IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Stjarnan3-2IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0-2Stjarnan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stjarnan 1514 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1443

	Stjarnan	Draw	IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stjarnan (rating 1514 vs 1443).
H2H favours IBV Vestmannaeyjar: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stjarnan	IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 8.1	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.65▲	Pinn 1.68
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.43 ★
2	4.00 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.97

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:09 +5’	1.61	4.00	4.00
01:18 +4’	1.65▲	4.10▲	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +153’	1.68	4.46	3.97
17:14 +13’	1.68▲	4.43▼	3.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stjarnan 2–1–3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Iceland Premier League	Stjarnan	2-2 HT 0-1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar
21/06/26 Iceland Premier League	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2-1 HT 2-1	Stjarnan
14/07/25 Iceland Premier League	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1-0 HT 0-0	Stjarnan
28/04/25 Iceland Premier League	Stjarnan	2-3 HT 1-2	IBV Vestmannaeyjar
08/02/25 Iceland League Cup	Stjarnan	3-2 HT 2-2	IBV Vestmannaeyjar
05/08/23 Iceland Premier League	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0-2 HT 0-0	Stjarnan

Standings · Iceland Premier League · Besta deild 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stjarnan	22	8	4	10	42	50	28
2	Valur Reykjavik	22	8	3	11	39	45	27
3	FH Hafnarfjordur	22	4	9	9	27	39	21
4	Thor Akureyri	22	6	3	13	22	50	21
5	KA Akureyri	22	5	5	12	35	48	20
6	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	4	6	12	32	45	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stjarnan	IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Breidablik	2-0 W	0-1 L
Thor Akureyri	4-2 W	0-1 L
Fram Reykjavik	1-3 L	1-2 L
Keflavik	1-0 W	0-1 L
Valur Reykjavik	3-2 W	1-0 W
IA Akranes	1-5 L	1-3 L
KR Reykjavik	0-5 L	2-5 L
KA Akureyri	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Stjarnan (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stjarnan

WDLLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
31/08	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/08	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	3-0	4-2	7	2	W
17/08	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
09/08	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-0	12	5	W
03/08	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
26/07	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	0-3	1-5	8	2	L
19/07	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-2	0-5	2	8	L
03/07	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	2-2	2-2	17	1	D
28/06	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	2-0	3-1	12	6	W

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

WLDLLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-2	0	4	D
29/08	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
23/08	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/08	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-3	10	3	L
09/08	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	0	7	D
01/08	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-2	1-2	4	10	L
27/07	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
19/07	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-1	2-2	5	8	D
12/07	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-2	2-5	1	5	L
04/07	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stjarnan vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stjarnan win (54%). Probabilities: Stjarnan 54%, draw 22%, IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24%.

How many goals are expected in Stjarnan vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Stjarnan 2.09 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.34), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stjarnan vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.