Football · Iceland Premier League · 13/09, 18:00

Prediction: FH Hafnarfjordur vs KA Akureyri

Team pages: FH Hafnarfjordur · KA Akureyri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

FH Hafnarfjordur1.73

KA Akureyri1.45

1X2

44% 25% 32%

FH Hafnarfjordur Draw KA Akureyri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FH Hafnarfjordur 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDDWLDWL

KA Akureyri 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLDLDW

Head-to-head

FH Hafnarfjordur 3–1–2 KA Akureyri (6 last)

KA Akureyri0-1FH Hafnarfjordur
FH Hafnarfjordur1-2KA Akureyri
FH Hafnarfjordur5-0KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri3-2FH Hafnarfjordur
FH Hafnarfjordur1-1KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri2-3FH Hafnarfjordur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FH Hafnarfjordur 1496 · KA Akureyri 1473

	FH Hafnarfjordur	Draw	KA Akureyri
Our model	43%	25%	31%
Market	44%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FH Hafnarfjordur: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FH Hafnarfjordur	KA Akureyri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.75

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.08
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.89
2	3.10 → 2.80▼	Pinn 3.04 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:08 +6’	1.90	3.80	3.10
01:18 +4’	2.05▲	3.75▼	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +150’	1.82	4.14	3.59
00:10 +71’	2.07▲	3.91▼	3.04▼
09:12 +23’	2.08▲	3.89▼	3.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FH Hafnarfjordur 3–1–2 KA Akureyri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Iceland Premier League	KA Akureyri	0-1 HT 0-0	FH Hafnarfjordur
17/05/26 Iceland Premier League	FH Hafnarfjordur	1-2 HT 1-0	KA Akureyri
13/07/25 Iceland Premier League	FH Hafnarfjordur	5-0 HT 2-0	KA Akureyri
27/04/25 Iceland Premier League	KA Akureyri	3-2 HT 1-1	FH Hafnarfjordur
08/07/24 Iceland Premier League	FH Hafnarfjordur	1-1 HT 1-0	KA Akureyri
13/04/24 Iceland Premier League	KA Akureyri	2-3 HT 1-2	FH Hafnarfjordur

Standings · Iceland Premier League · Besta deild 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stjarnan	22	8	4	10	42	50	28
2	Valur Reykjavik	22	8	3	11	39	45	27
3	FH Hafnarfjordur	22	4	9	9	27	39	21
4	Thor Akureyri	22	6	3	13	22	50	21
5	KA Akureyri	22	5	5	12	35	48	20
6	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	4	6	12	32	45	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FH Hafnarfjordur	KA Akureyri
Thor Akureyri	0-1 L	0-0 D
Keflavik	2-1 W	0-3 L
IA Akranes	1-1 D	3-2 W
Vikingur Reykjavik	2-4 L	2-3 L
KR Reykjavik	1-1 D	3-5 L
Fram Reykjavik	0-0 D	2-2 D
Breidablik	0-0 D	2-1 W
Valur Reykjavik	2-0 W	4-4 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KA Akureyri (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FH Hafnarfjordur

DWDDDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
30/08	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
23/08	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
16/08	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-2	2-4	6	5	L
09/08	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	9	W
05/08	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
26/07	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
20/07	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/07	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
03/07	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	2-2	2-2	5	1	D

KA Akureyri

LWDDLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
30/08	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
23/08	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	2-4	3-5	3	0	L
17/08	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	3-1	4-4	5	0	D
09/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
05/08	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	0-3	0-3	4	8	L
27/07	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
19/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-2	1	8	D
12/07	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	0-1	3-2	4	3	W
02/07	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	2-1	2-3	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FH Hafnarfjordur vs KA Akureyri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FH Hafnarfjordur win (44%). Probabilities: FH Hafnarfjordur 44%, draw 25%, KA Akureyri 32%.

How many goals are expected in FH Hafnarfjordur vs KA Akureyri?

The model expects 3.18 goals (FH Hafnarfjordur 1.73 · KA Akureyri 1.45), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FH Hafnarfjordur vs KA Akureyri?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.