Football · Iceland Premier League · 13/09, 18:00

Prediction: KR Reykjavik vs IA Akranes

Team pages: KR Reykjavik · IA Akranes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.53Total

KR Reykjavik2.81

IA Akranes1.72

1X2

60% 19% 21%

KR Reykjavik Draw IA Akranes

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

KR Reykjavik 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWDWDL

IA Akranes 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWWDDW

Head-to-head

KR Reykjavik 3–3 IA Akranes (6 last)

IA Akranes3-1KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik5-3IA Akranes
IA Akranes3-2KR Reykjavik
IA Akranes1-0KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik5-0IA Akranes
KR Reykjavik4-2IA Akranes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KR Reykjavik 1540 · IA Akranes 1520

	KR Reykjavik	Draw	IA Akranes
Our model	60%	18%	22%
Market	60%	19%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KR Reykjavik	IA Akranes
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 2.1	2.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1.2	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 8.3	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.55
X	4.33 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.10 ★
2	3.70 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:14 +1’	1.61	4.33	3.70
07:24 +6’	1.50▼	4.75▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +149’	1.50	5.25	4.58
01:04 +30’	1.51▲	5.24▼	4.55▼
20:17 +26’	1.52▲	5.18▼	4.45▼
14:13 +91’	1.55▲	5.10▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KR Reykjavik 3–0–3 IA Akranes

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	3-1 HT 1-0	KR Reykjavik
22/06/26 Iceland Premier League	KR Reykjavik	5-3 HT 2-2	IA Akranes
27/09/25 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	3-2 HT 1-0	KR Reykjavik
14/07/25 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	1-0 HT 0-0	KR Reykjavik
27/04/25 Iceland Premier League	KR Reykjavik	5-0 HT 2-0	IA Akranes
01/09/24 Iceland Premier League	KR Reykjavik	4-2 HT 3-1	IA Akranes

Standings · Iceland Premier League · Besta deild 2026, Championship Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	22	16	5	1	67	21	53
2	Fram Reykjavik	22	13	6	3	56	42	45
3	KR Reykjavik	22	13	5	4	74	49	44
4	Breidablik	22	8	6	8	43	41	30
5	IA Akranes	22	8	6	8	39	41	30
6	Keflavik	22	8	4	10	33	38	28

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KR Reykjavik	IA Akranes
Vikingur Reykjavik	1-1 D	2-2 D
KA Akureyri	5-3 W	2-3 L
Breidablik	3-3 D	1-2 L
FH Hafnarfjordur	1-1 D	1-1 D
Stjarnan	5-0 W	5-1 W
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	5-2 W	3-1 W
Thor Akureyri	3-3 D	2-0 W
Keflavik	2-3 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KR Reykjavik (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KR Reykjavik

LDWWDWDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-3	6	1	L
01/09	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-1	13	5	D
23/08	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	4-2	5-3	10	0	W
16/08	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-3	3-3	14	5	D
10/08	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	3-1	5-2	5	0	W
05/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
19/07	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	2-0	5-0	8	8	W
12/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	2-1	5-2	6	5	W
02/07	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-3	3-3	8	7	D
28/06	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-3	4	3	L

IA Akranes

LLLWDWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	3-1	9	1	W
30/08	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-2	10	3	D
23/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-1	10	7	D
16/08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
09/08	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/08	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
26/07	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	3-0	5-1	2	2	W
20/07	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	0-2	2-5	5	3	L
12/07	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
04/07	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KR Reykjavik vs IA Akranes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KR Reykjavik win (60%). Probabilities: KR Reykjavik 60%, draw 19%, IA Akranes 21%.

How many goals are expected in KR Reykjavik vs IA Akranes?

The model expects 4.53 goals (KR Reykjavik 2.81 · IA Akranes 1.72), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KR Reykjavik vs IA Akranes?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.