Football · Iceland Premier League · 13/09, 18:00

Prediction: Valur Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyri

Team pages: Valur Reykjavik · Thor Akureyri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

Valur Reykjavik2.38

Thor Akureyri1.37

1X2

59% 21% 20%

Valur Reykjavik Draw Thor Akureyri

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Valur Reykjavik 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWDLDW

Thor Akureyri 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Valur Reykjavik 4–2 Thor Akureyri (6 last)

Thor Akureyri2-4Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik1-2Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri5-1Valur Reykjavik
Thor Akureyri2-4Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik3-2Thor Akureyri
Valur Reykjavik2-0Thor Akureyri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valur Reykjavik 1463 · Thor Akureyri 1498

	Valur Reykjavik	Draw	Thor Akureyri
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	59%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Valur Reykjavik: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valur Reykjavik	Thor Akureyri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	1.9 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.33

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.56
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.73 ★
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.54

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:07 +7’	1.50	4.33	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +151’	1.56	4.73	4.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Valur Reykjavik 4–0–2 Thor Akureyri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Iceland Premier League	Thor Akureyri	2-4 HT 0-2	Valur Reykjavik
12/04/26 Iceland Premier League	Valur Reykjavik	1-2 HT 1-1	Thor Akureyri
10/03/26 Iceland League Cup	Thor Akureyri	5-1 HT 2-1	Valur Reykjavik
25/03/17 Iceland League Cup	Thor Akureyri	2-4 HT 0-1	Valur Reykjavik
28/03/15 Iceland League Cup	Valur Reykjavik	3-2	Thor Akureyri
21/09/14 Iceland Premier League	Valur Reykjavik	2-0 HT 0-0	Thor Akureyri

Standings · Iceland Premier League · Besta deild 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stjarnan	22	8	4	10	42	50	28
2	Valur Reykjavik	22	8	3	11	39	45	27
3	FH Hafnarfjordur	22	4	9	9	27	39	21
4	Thor Akureyri	22	6	3	13	22	50	21
5	KA Akureyri	22	5	5	12	35	48	20
6	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	4	6	12	32	45	18

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valur Reykjavik	Thor Akureyri
Keflavik	2-1 W	0-2 L
IA Akranes	2-2 D	0-2 L
Vikingur Reykjavik	0-2 L	2-1 W
KA Akureyri	4-4 D	0-0 D
Breidablik	3-1 W	1-0 W
Stjarnan	2-3 L	2-4 L
Fram Reykjavik	2-3 L	1-6 L
FH Hafnarfjordur	0-2 L	1-0 W
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Valur Reykjavik (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valur Reykjavik

WLLLLWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
30/08	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	0-1	2-2	14	3	D
23/08	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
17/08	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-3	4-4	9	0	D
09/08	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-0	3-1	9	4	W
03/08	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
18/07	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-3	2-3	7	3	L
12/07	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
04/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
28/06	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	2-0	4-2	3	4	W

Thor Akureyri

DLWDWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
29/08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
23/08	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	0-3	2-4	4	2	L
15/08	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
09/08	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	0-1	0-2	10	6	L
04/08	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
27/07	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
18/07	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
12/07	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-2	1-6	3	1	L
02/07	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	3-1	3-3	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valur Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valur Reykjavik win (59%). Probabilities: Valur Reykjavik 59%, draw 21%, Thor Akureyri 20%.

How many goals are expected in Valur Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyri?

The model expects 3.76 goals (Valur Reykjavik 2.38 · Thor Akureyri 1.37), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Valur Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyri?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.