Prediction: Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II
Expected goals: 2.99 (Tacoma Defiance 1.67 · Portland Timbers II 1.32). The model gives 45% home, 26% draw, 30% away. Under 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Tacoma Defiance with 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Portland Timbers II has piled up 6-1-3 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Tacoma Defiance and 4 for Portland Timbers II.
| Tacoma Defiance | Draw | Portland Timbers II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Portland Timbers II: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tacoma Defiance | Portland Timbers II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 2.6 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacoma Defiance 2–0–4 Portland Timbers II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 25/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 28/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Portland Timbers II |
| 19/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 09/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 5-2 HT 0-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 01/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Portland Timbers II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 37 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 29 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 25 | 29 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 7 | Minnesota United FC II | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| 8 | The Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 17 | 25 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 21 |
| 10 | Tacoma Defiance | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 21 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 19 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 36 | 14 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tacoma Defiance | Portland Timbers II |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC II | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Houston Dynamo II | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Ventura County FC | 1-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Tacoma Defiance (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
Portland Timbers II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tacoma Defiance win (45%). Probabilities: Tacoma Defiance 45%, draw 26%, Portland Timbers II 30%.
How many goals are expected in Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Tacoma Defiance 1.67 · Portland Timbers II 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.