Prediction: Houston Dynamo II vs St Louis City II
Expected goals: 3.44 (Houston Dynamo II 2.05 · St Louis City II 1.39). The model gives 52% home, 23% draw, 25% away. Over 3 goals (55%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Houston Dynamo II is 6-1-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and St Louis City II 2-3-5 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Houston Dynamo II won 1 and St Louis City II 3, with 2 draws.
| Houston Dynamo II | Draw | St Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo II (rating 1551 vs 1457).
- H2H favours St Louis City II: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Houston Dynamo II | St Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.2 | 1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 4.9 | 3.3 / 8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo II 1–2–3 St Louis City II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 01/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | St Louis City II |
| 29/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 04/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 12/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | St Louis City II |
| 17/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 34 | 13 | 40 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 32 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 29 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| 6 | The Town | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 18 | 28 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 8 | Minnesota United FC II | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 23 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 20 | 22 |
| 11 | Tacoma Defiance | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 21 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 50 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 17 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Houston Dynamo II | St Louis City II |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC II | 4-0 W | 2-5 L |
| Los Angeles FC II | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Ventura County FC | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Colorado Rapids II | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Houston Dynamo II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 11 | L |
| 18/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 18/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 15 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo II vs St Louis City II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo II win (52%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo II 52%, draw 23%, St Louis City II 25%.
How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo II vs St Louis City II?
The model expects 3.44 goals (Houston Dynamo II 2.05 · St Louis City II 1.39), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo II vs St Louis City II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.