Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 19/07, 01:00
Prediction: St Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
St Louis City II1.6
Portland Timbers II1.34
1X2
St Louis City II
Draw
Portland Timbers II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
St Louis City II
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Portland Timbers II
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Louis City II
4–1–1
Portland Timbers II
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Louis City II 1433 · Portland Timbers II 1541
| St Louis City II | Draw | Portland Timbers II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers II (rating 1433 vs 1541).
- H2H favours St Louis City II: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Louis City II | Portland Timbers II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 7.1 | 2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Louis City II 4–1–1 Portland Timbers II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 2-1 HT 2-0 | St Louis City II |
| 24/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 6-3 HT 1-2 | Portland Timbers II |
| 08/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 19/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 26/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 1-2 HT 1-2 | St Louis City II |
| 28/08/22 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 3-5 HT 1-2 | St Louis City II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 40 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 34 |
| 4 | Minnesota United FC II | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 29 |
| 5 | Ventura County FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 29 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 29 |
| 8 | The Town | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 28 |
| 9 | Real Monarchs SLC | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 31 | 26 |
| 10 | Tacoma Defiance | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 24 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 40 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 50 | 13 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 35 | 12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Louis City II | Portland Timbers II |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo II | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Minnesota United FC II | 2-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Colorado Rapids II | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Los Angeles FC II | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Portland Timbers II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 18/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 15 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
Portland Timbers II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 06/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Louis City II win (43%). Probabilities: St Louis City II 43%, draw 26%, Portland Timbers II 31%.
How many goals are expected in St Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II?
The model expects 2.94 goals (St Louis City II 1.6 · Portland Timbers II 1.34), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in St Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.