Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 26/07, 01:00
Prediction: Ventura County FC vs The Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.67Total
Ventura County FC1.78
The Town1.88
1X2
Ventura County FC
Draw
The Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ventura County FC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
The Town
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ventura County FC
0–2–4
The Town
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ventura County FC 1495 · The Town 1526
| Ventura County FC | Draw | The Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 23% | 40% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours The Town: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ventura County FC | The Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 2.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ventura County FC 0–2–4 The Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 1-3 HT 0-3 | The Town |
| 22/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 0-4 HT 0-2 | The Town |
| 16/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Ventura County FC |
| 30/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ventura County FC |
| 29/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 0-4 HT 0-1 | The Town |
| 01/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Ventura County FC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo II | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 15 | 40 |
| 2 | Austin FC II | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 40 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 23 | 37 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 27 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United FC II | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 32 | 29 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC II | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 8 | The Town | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 20 | 28 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 27 |
| 10 | Real Monarchs SLC | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 35 | 26 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 25 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 40 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 50 | 16 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ventura County FC | The Town |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Tacoma Defiance | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Portland Timbers II | 3-3 D | 3-2 W |
| Sporting Kansas City II | 2-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: The Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ventura County FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 08/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 07/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
The Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 13/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/07 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ventura County FC vs The Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is an The Town win (40%). Probabilities: Ventura County FC 36%, draw 24%, The Town 40%.
How many goals are expected in Ventura County FC vs The Town?
The model expects 3.67 goals (Ventura County FC 1.78 · The Town 1.88), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ventura County FC vs The Town?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.