Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 26/07, 22:00
Prediction: Portland Timbers II vs Real Monarchs SLC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
Portland Timbers II1.91
Real Monarchs SLC1.25
1X2
Portland Timbers II
Draw
Real Monarchs SLC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Portland Timbers II
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Real Monarchs SLC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Portland Timbers II
1–5
Real Monarchs SLC
(6 last)
- Real Monarchs SLC4-1Portland Timbers II
- Real Monarchs SLC0-3Portland Timbers II
- Portland Timbers II1-2Real Monarchs SLC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portland Timbers II 1542 · Real Monarchs SLC 1467
| Portland Timbers II | Draw | Real Monarchs SLC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers II (rating 1542 vs 1467).
- H2H favours Real Monarchs SLC: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portland Timbers II | Real Monarchs SLC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers II 1–0–5 Real Monarchs SLC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Portland Timbers II |
| 03/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Portland Timbers II |
| 04/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 29/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 16/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 30/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Portland Timbers II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 16 | 43 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 15 | 40 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 23 | 37 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 27 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United FC II | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 32 | 29 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC II | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 8 | The Town | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 20 | 28 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 27 |
| 10 | Real Monarchs SLC | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 35 | 26 |
| 11 | North Texas SC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 25 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 44 | 17 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 50 | 16 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Portland Timbers II | Real Monarchs SLC |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC II | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Tacoma Defiance | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| The Town | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Colorado Rapids II | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Portland Timbers II (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Portland Timbers II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 06/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
Real Monarchs SLC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers II vs Real Monarchs SLC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers II win (52%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers II 52%, draw 24%, Real Monarchs SLC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers II vs Real Monarchs SLC?
The model expects 3.16 goals (Portland Timbers II 1.91 · Real Monarchs SLC 1.25), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Portland Timbers II vs Real Monarchs SLC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.