Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 23/08, 02:45
Prediction: North Texas SC vs Minnesota United FC II
Team pages: North Texas SC · Minnesota United FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
North Texas SC1.39
Minnesota United FC II1.54
1X2
North Texas SC
Draw
Minnesota United FC II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Texas SC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Minnesota United FC II
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Texas SC
5–1
Minnesota United FC II
(6 last)
- Minnesota United FC II0-2North Texas SC
- Minnesota United FC II1-0North Texas SC
- Minnesota United FC II1-2North Texas SC
- North Texas SC3-1Minnesota United FC II
- Minnesota United FC II0-1North Texas SC
- North Texas SC8-2Minnesota United FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Texas SC 1497 · Minnesota United FC II 1457
| North Texas SC | Draw | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 24% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Texas SC (rating 1497 vs 1457).
- H2H favours North Texas SC: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Texas SC | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Texas SC 5–0–1 Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 0-2 HT 0-2 | North Texas SC |
| 26/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | North Texas SC |
| 21/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 1-2 HT 0-1 | North Texas SC |
| 04/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 02/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | North Texas SC |
| 06/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 8-2 HT 4-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 53 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 31 | 24 | 48 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 41 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 39 | 36 | 41 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 36 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 28 | 33 |
| 9 | North Texas SC | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 31 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 35 | 30 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas City II | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 57 | 20 |
| 13 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 53 | 19 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 44 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Texas SC | Minnesota United FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Austin FC II | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Portland Timbers II | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Tacoma Defiance | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Los Angeles FC II | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| The Town | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Colorado Rapids II | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| St Louis City II | 3-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Texas SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 29/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Texas SC vs Minnesota United FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Minnesota United FC II win (40%). Probabilities: North Texas SC 34%, draw 25%, Minnesota United FC II 40%.
How many goals are expected in North Texas SC vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model expects 2.93 goals (North Texas SC 1.39 · Minnesota United FC II 1.54), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in North Texas SC vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.