Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 24/08, 01:00
Prediction: St Louis City II vs Houston Dynamo II
Team pages: St Louis City II · Houston Dynamo II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
St Louis City II1.67
Houston Dynamo II1.48
1X2
St Louis City II
Draw
Houston Dynamo II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
St Louis City II
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Houston Dynamo II
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Louis City II
2–2–2
Houston Dynamo II
(6 last)
- Houston Dynamo II2-1St Louis City II
- St Louis City II1-4Houston Dynamo II
- Houston Dynamo II2-2St Louis City II
- St Louis City II1-0Houston Dynamo II
- St Louis City II3-1Houston Dynamo II
- Houston Dynamo II1-1St Louis City II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Louis City II 1464 · Houston Dynamo II 1504
| St Louis City II | Draw | Houston Dynamo II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo II (rating 1464 vs 1504).
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Louis City II | Houston Dynamo II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 3.4 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Louis City II 2–2–2 Houston Dynamo II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | St Louis City II |
| 09/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 01/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | St Louis City II |
| 29/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 04/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 12/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | St Louis City II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 53 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 31 | 24 | 48 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 41 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 39 | 36 | 41 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 36 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 28 | 33 |
| 9 | North Texas SC | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 31 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 35 | 30 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas City II | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 57 | 20 |
| 13 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 53 | 19 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 44 | 15 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Louis City II | Houston Dynamo II |
|---|---|---|
| The Town | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Colorado Rapids II | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Austin FC II | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Minnesota United FC II | 2-5 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Houston Dynamo II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 19/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
Houston Dynamo II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 27/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 11 | L |
| 18/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Louis City II vs Houston Dynamo II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Louis City II win (41%). Probabilities: St Louis City II 41%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo II 33%.
How many goals are expected in St Louis City II vs Houston Dynamo II?
The model expects 3.15 goals (St Louis City II 1.67 · Houston Dynamo II 1.48), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in St Louis City II vs Houston Dynamo II?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.