Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 22/08, 19:00
Prediction: Atlanta United II vs Orlando City II
Team pages: Atlanta United II · Orlando City II
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.39Total
Atlanta United II2.14
Orlando City II1.25
1X2
Atlanta United II
Draw
Orlando City II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atlanta United II
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Orlando City II
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atlanta United II
1–2–3
Orlando City II
(6 last)
- Atlanta United II0-2Orlando City II
- Orlando City II2-1Atlanta United II
- Atlanta United II3-0Orlando City II
- Orlando City II2-2Atlanta United II
- Atlanta United II1-4Orlando City II
- Orlando City II2-2Atlanta United II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atlanta United II 1475 · Orlando City II 1480
| Atlanta United II | Draw | Orlando City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Orlando City II: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atlanta United II | Orlando City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 6.4 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United II 1–2–3 Orlando City II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Orlando City II |
| 24/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Atlanta United II |
| 26/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Orlando City II |
| 17/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Atlanta United II |
| 24/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Orlando City II |
| 27/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Atlanta United II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 54 | 32 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 32 | 44 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 32 | 42 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 42 |
| 5 | CT United | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 39 | 40 |
| 6 | New York Red Bulls II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 38 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 37 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 34 | 36 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 36 | 36 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 43 | 35 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 32 | 33 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 42 | 32 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 42 | 30 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 23 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 53 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 53 | 11 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atlanta United II | Orlando City II |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire II | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Chattanooga FC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| New York City FC II | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Huntsville City | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Crown Legacy | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Columbus Crew II | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Orlando City II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atlanta United II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 31/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Orlando City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 11/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 13/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 29/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 22/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atlanta United II vs Orlando City II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United II win (57%). Probabilities: Atlanta United II 57%, draw 21%, Orlando City II 21%.
How many goals are expected in Atlanta United II vs Orlando City II?
The model expects 3.39 goals (Atlanta United II 2.14 · Orlando City II 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atlanta United II vs Orlando City II?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.