Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 14/08, 22:00

Prediction: Atlanta United II vs New York Red Bulls II

Team pages: Atlanta United II · New York Red Bulls II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Atlanta United II2.21

New York Red Bulls II1.76

1X2

47% 23% 30%

Atlanta United II Draw New York Red Bulls II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWLWDL

New York Red Bulls II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Atlanta United II 0–1–5 New York Red Bulls II (6 last)

New York Red Bulls II1-0Atlanta United II
Atlanta United II0-1New York Red Bulls II
New York Red Bulls II6-2Atlanta United II
New York Red Bulls II4-2Atlanta United II
Atlanta United II1-1New York Red Bulls II
New York Red Bulls II2-1Atlanta United II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United II 1506 · New York Red Bulls II 1466

	Atlanta United II	Draw	New York Red Bulls II
Our model	48%	22%	30%
Market	47%	23%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atlanta United II (rating 1506 vs 1466).
H2H favours New York Red Bulls II: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United II	New York Red Bulls II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	1.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 6.8	2.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.85
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.00 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.52 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +3’	1.91	3.80	3.00
23:06 +4’	1.90▼	3.80	3.00
05:29 +3’	1.85▼	3.80	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:08 +1’	1.81	3.96	3.49
05:29 +2’	1.85▲	3.71▼	3.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United II 0–1–5 New York Red Bulls II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	New York Red Bulls II	1-0 HT 0-0	Atlanta United II
08/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Atlanta United II	0-1 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls II
08/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	New York Red Bulls II	6-2 HT 4-1	Atlanta United II
22/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	New York Red Bulls II	4-2 HT 3-1	Atlanta United II
03/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Atlanta United II	1-1 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls II
10/08/22 USA USL Championship	New York Red Bulls II	2-1 HT 0-0	Atlanta United II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	22	12	7	3	54	30	48
2	Chattanooga FC	22	11	6	5	41	30	43
3	New England Revolution II	21	11	6	4	34	24	42
4	Columbus Crew II	21	10	5	6	37	33	39
5	New York Red Bulls II	22	10	4	8	43	37	35
6	Orlando City II	22	8	7	7	42	41	35
7	Atlanta United II	21	10	4	7	44	34	34
8	CT United	21	10	2	9	40	37	34
9	New York City FC II	20	9	4	7	33	30	33
10	Chicago Fire II	21	8	6	7	43	34	33
11	Philadelphia Union II	22	8	4	10	24	29	30
12	Huntsville City	22	7	6	9	35	42	29
13	Toronto FC II	21	8	3	10	35	40	28
14	Carolina Core FC	23	5	8	10	32	40	26
15	FC Cincinnati II	21	4	2	15	22	45	16
16	Inter Miami CF II	20	1	4	15	16	49	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United II	New York Red Bulls II
Chattanooga FC	0-1 L	0-4 L
Toronto FC II	1-0 W	5-0 W
Crown Legacy	3-3 D	0-3 L
Columbus Crew II	2-3 L	2-1 W
Chicago Fire II	3-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atlanta United II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United II

WDLDWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
31/07	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	3-2	3-3	5	2	D
26/07	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-2	2	5	W
19/07	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
12/07	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	4-1	11	3	W
05/07	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
28/06	Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League	2-2	3-3	8	3	D
22/06	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	2-3	5	4	L
14/06	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	4-4	8	6	D
07/06	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	5	5	W

New York Red Bulls II

LLWWDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
02/08	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-4	6	8	L
25/07	Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-3	6	3	L
20/07	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
12/07	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	0-3	11	7	L
06/07	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
29/06	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	5-0	7	4	W
22/06	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	5-0	5	4	W
14/06	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-2	7	7	L
07/06	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	0-4	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United II vs New York Red Bulls II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United II win (47%). Probabilities: Atlanta United II 47%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls II 30%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United II vs New York Red Bulls II?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Atlanta United II 2.21 · New York Red Bulls II 1.76), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United II vs New York Red Bulls II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.