Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 15/08, 01:00
Prediction: Toronto FC II vs Chattanooga FC
Team pages: Toronto FC II · Chattanooga FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Toronto FC II1.38
Chattanooga FC1.81
1X2
Toronto FC II
Draw
Chattanooga FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Toronto FC II
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Chattanooga FC
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toronto FC II
1–1–2
Chattanooga FC
(4 last)
- Chattanooga FC1-2Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II1-2Chattanooga FC
- Toronto FC II1-5Chattanooga FC
- Chattanooga FC1-1Toronto FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toronto FC II 1474 · Chattanooga FC 1561
| Toronto FC II | Draw | Chattanooga FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chattanooga FC (rating 1474 vs 1561).
- H2H favours Chattanooga FC: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toronto FC II | Chattanooga FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.3 | 2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC II 1–1–2 Chattanooga FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chattanooga FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 10/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Chattanooga FC |
| 29/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-5 HT 0-1 | Chattanooga FC |
| 04/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chattanooga FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Toronto FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 54 | 30 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 43 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 42 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 33 | 39 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 35 |
| 6 | Orlando City II | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 41 | 35 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 34 | 34 |
| 8 | CT United | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 34 |
| 9 | New York City FC II | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 33 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire II | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 43 | 34 | 33 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 29 | 30 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 35 | 42 | 29 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 40 | 28 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 45 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 20 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 49 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toronto FC II | Chattanooga FC |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire II | 4-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Inter Miami CF II | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Atlanta United II | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| New York Red Bulls II | 0-5 L | 4-0 W |
| Philadelphia Union II | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Chattanooga FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Chattanooga FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 19/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 12/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 22/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 14/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toronto FC II vs Chattanooga FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chattanooga FC win (47%). Probabilities: Toronto FC II 29%, draw 25%, Chattanooga FC 47%.
How many goals are expected in Toronto FC II vs Chattanooga FC?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Toronto FC II 1.38 · Chattanooga FC 1.81), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC II vs Chattanooga FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.