Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 15/08, 22:00

Prediction: Chicago Fire II vs Orlando City II

Team pages: Chicago Fire II · Orlando City II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

Chicago Fire II2.41

Orlando City II1.5

1X2

57% 21% 22%

Chicago Fire II Draw Orlando City II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Fire II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Orlando City II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chicago Fire II 1–3–2 Orlando City II (6 last)

Chicago Fire II2-2Orlando City II
Orlando City II2-1Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II5-1Orlando City II
Chicago Fire II1-1Orlando City II
Orlando City II3-0Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II1-1Orlando City II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Fire II 1520 · Orlando City II 1489

	Chicago Fire II	Draw	Orlando City II
Our model	57%	21%	23%
Market	57%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Orlando City II: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Fire II	Orlando City II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.57▼	Bet365 1.57
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.38
2	3.60 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.55 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:59 +11’	1.67	4.10	3.60
14:51 +8’	1.57▼	4.20▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:09 +1’	1.58	4.31	4.35
17:13 +14’	1.55▼	4.38▲	4.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire II 1–3–2 Orlando City II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Chicago Fire II	2-2 HT 2-0	Orlando City II
09/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Orlando City II	2-1 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire II
03/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Chicago Fire II	5-1 HT 2-1	Orlando City II
20/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Chicago Fire II	1-1 HT 1-1	Orlando City II
24/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Orlando City II	3-0 HT 0-0	Chicago Fire II
16/09/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Chicago Fire II	1-1 HT 1-0	Orlando City II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	22	12	7	3	54	30	48
2	Chattanooga FC	23	11	7	5	43	32	44
3	New England Revolution II	21	11	6	4	34	24	42
4	Columbus Crew II	21	10	5	6	37	33	39
5	New York Red Bulls II	23	11	4	8	45	38	38
6	Orlando City II	22	8	7	7	42	41	35
7	Atlanta United II	22	10	4	8	45	36	34
8	CT United	21	10	2	9	40	37	34
9	New York City FC II	20	9	4	7	33	30	33
10	Chicago Fire II	21	8	6	7	43	34	33
11	Toronto FC II	22	8	4	10	37	42	30
12	Philadelphia Union II	22	8	4	10	24	29	30
13	Huntsville City	22	7	6	9	35	42	29
14	Carolina Core FC	23	5	8	10	32	40	26
15	FC Cincinnati II	21	4	2	15	22	45	16
16	Inter Miami CF II	20	1	4	15	16	49	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chicago Fire II	Orlando City II
FC Cincinnati II	7-2 W	2-1 W
Carolina Core FC	5-1 W	3-2 W
Crown Legacy	2-3 L	1-1 D
Huntsville City	2-2 D	0-1 L
Chattanooga FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chicago Fire II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	4-2	7-2	9	1	W
26/07	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	5-1	3	6	W
18/07	Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	2-3	6	2	L
12/07	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
06/07	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	5	1	D
28/06	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
21/06	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
14/06	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
07/06	Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-3	5	5	L

Orlando City II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
02/08	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	2-4	4	2	L
27/07	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
19/07	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
13/07	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
06/07	Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/06	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-2	1	4	D
22/06	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
14/06	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
08/06	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	3-2	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire II vs Orlando City II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire II win (57%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire II 57%, draw 21%, Orlando City II 22%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire II vs Orlando City II?

The model expects 3.91 goals (Chicago Fire II 2.41 · Orlando City II 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire II vs Orlando City II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.