Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 23/08, 01:30
Prediction: Carolina Core FC vs FC Cincinnati II
Team pages: Carolina Core FC · FC Cincinnati II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.7Total
Carolina Core FC2.31
FC Cincinnati II1.39
1X2
Carolina Core FC
Draw
FC Cincinnati II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Carolina Core FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
FC Cincinnati II
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carolina Core FC
2–1
FC Cincinnati II
(3 last)
- FC Cincinnati II2-3Carolina Core FC
- FC Cincinnati II0-1Carolina Core FC
- Carolina Core FC1-3FC Cincinnati II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carolina Core FC 1515 · FC Cincinnati II 1412
| Carolina Core FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carolina Core FC (rating 1515 vs 1412).
- H2H favours Carolina Core FC: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carolina Core FC | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.2 | 2.8 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carolina Core FC 2–0–1 FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Carolina Core FC |
| 17/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Carolina Core FC |
| 16/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Carolina Core FC | 1-3 HT 1-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 54 | 32 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 32 | 44 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 32 | 42 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 42 |
| 5 | CT United | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 39 | 40 |
| 6 | New York Red Bulls II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 38 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 37 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 34 | 36 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 36 | 36 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 43 | 35 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 32 | 33 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 42 | 32 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 42 | 30 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 23 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 53 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 53 | 11 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carolina Core FC | FC Cincinnati II |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire II | 1-5 L | 2-7 L |
| Inter Miami CF II | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| CT United | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| New York City FC II | 2-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Carolina Core FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carolina Core FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 06/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-4 | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carolina Core FC vs FC Cincinnati II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carolina Core FC win (57%). Probabilities: Carolina Core FC 57%, draw 21%, FC Cincinnati II 22%.
How many goals are expected in Carolina Core FC vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model expects 3.7 goals (Carolina Core FC 2.31 · FC Cincinnati II 1.39), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Carolina Core FC vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.