Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 18/07, 01:00
Prediction: Toronto FC II vs FC Cincinnati II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.05Total
Toronto FC II1.73
FC Cincinnati II1.32
1X2
Toronto FC II
Draw
FC Cincinnati II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Toronto FC II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
FC Cincinnati II
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toronto FC II
3–1–2
FC Cincinnati II
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toronto FC II 1451 · FC Cincinnati II 1431
| Toronto FC II | Draw | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Toronto FC II: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toronto FC II | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.2 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 2.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC II 3–1–2 FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 5-0 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 16/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 09/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 09/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 02/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Toronto FC II |
| 14/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 25 | 34 |
| 3 | Orlando City II | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 39 | 32 | 33 |
| 4 | Chattanooga FC | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 33 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 27 | 32 |
| 6 | New England Revolution II | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 31 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 26 | 30 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 28 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 24 | 27 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Union II | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 26 |
| 11 | CT United | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 25 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 35 | 22 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 35 | 22 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 32 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 | 31 | 14 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toronto FC II | FC Cincinnati II |
|---|---|---|
| CT United | 2-3 L | 0-4 L |
| New England Revolution II | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| New York Red Bulls II | 0-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Huntsville City | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Columbus Crew II | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Toronto FC II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toronto FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toronto FC II win (47%). Probabilities: Toronto FC II 47%, draw 25%, FC Cincinnati II 29%.
How many goals are expected in Toronto FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model expects 3.05 goals (Toronto FC II 1.73 · FC Cincinnati II 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.